Highlights
− Recent increased military expenditures by Brazil and Venezuela signal a new era in South America
− Debate continues about whether or not the military buildup of both countries is cause for alarm or just modernization
− The increase in military spending is cause for concern, but regional conflict is unlikely in the near- to mid-term
Though South America has not seen a major war between nations in decades, recent arms purchases by Brazil and Venezuela may mark the start of a new arms race. Venezuela, flush with oil money, is of particular concern, not only to Brazil, but also to the United States. In the last year, Venezuela, under President Hugo Chávez has spent significant funds on helicopters, Russian fighter planes, and an estimated 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles. In neighboring Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recently asked Congress to allocate 10.13 billion reais ($5.6 billion), a 53 percent increase for its 2008 military budget.
While experts debate the meaning behind military spending increases by both Brazil and Venezuela, it is likely that an arms race is developing and could create stability problems for the region in the long-term.
Subs, Guns and Antiquated Weaponry
Brazil’s armed forces, the largest in Latin America, are poorly equipped and recent reports indicate soldiers are unsatisfied with 30-year old rifles and Korean War-era tanks. Modernization is just one of the numerous reasons the Brazilian government has offered the international community to explain its buildup. However, a key ally to President Lula recently stated that Venezuela posed a “threat” to Brazil and all of South America.
Brazil’s military buildup triggered more alarms last week when the government announced it was seeking to buy a nuclear submarine from France. The new weapon, to go along with five conventional submarines, will be used to help protect expected oil reserves off Brazil’s coast, not as an offensive weapon.
While the Brazilian military increase is itself a cause for concern, there is little chance of a regional war in the near- to mid-term. While political and military problems will likely occur between Brazil and Venezuela in the long-term, Brazil’s immediate military operations will be to protect and preserve natural resources and energy development.
The Threat of Chavez
The thought of an unpredictable leader with modern weaponry concerns some of the continent’s moderates and other leaders around the world. Venezuela, under President Chávez, has embarked upon an ambitious military spending spree, shelling out around $4 billion to buy weaponry and material.
Few experts, however, believe President Chávez is buying weapons in order to attack a neighbor, although he has warned opponents of his ally, Bolivian President Evo Morales that, “rifle and machine guns will thunder” if they try to topple President Morales. However, military analysts believe Venezuela still does not have a military machine capable of handling a long-term military engagement. While the Venezuelan army would face a tough task taking on the much larger Brazilian army, many military experts fear that Chávez’s politics and controversial political policies could trigger a regional conflict.
Outlook
The military buildup between Brazil and Venezuela is a cause of concern, but neither country can afford to devote large amounts of money to weaponry over a sustained period of time. Poverty is still a major problem in most South American countries and that – along with infrastructure, justice, and education – is seen as a higher priority than a military build up or escalation. While Chávez talks tough, the Venezuelan threat comes fairly low down the list. However, history has shown that increased military spending and arms races potentially can lead to conflict.
