Highlights
• On January 16, 2008, the Sri Lankan government formally ended the truce with the LTTE
• A red alert was issued in Tamil Nadu after intelligence reports indicated that LTTE cadres had infiltrated the southern Indian state
• Fighting will likely increase in 2008
On January 20, 2008, India issued a red alert in Tamil Nadu after a warning from Interpol that members of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had infiltrated the southern state. A senior Indian intelligence officer reported that LTTE infiltration had increased by at least three times in the region and appeared to be establishing communication and fundraising networks.
The alert comes only days after the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), listed the LTTE as among the, “most dangerous and deadly extremists in the world,” and two weeks after the Sri Lankan government announced an end to a Norwegian-backed ceasefire.
Fighting between the Sri Lankan government and Tamil Tiger rebels is highly likely to increase in the near to mid-term, as both sides increasingly target civilians and expand their capabilities.
Recent Fighting
The most recent government figures raised the death toll since the start of the year to 505 rebels and 22 soldiers. Although these figures cannot be independently checked since no journalists or rights groups have access to the conflict areas, the number of casualties reported on both sides has increased dramatically in the early days of 2008.
The Sri Lankan government and LTTE forces have ignored a Norwegian-brokered truce since 2006. After the government’s formal end to the peace agreement on January 16, 2008, however, fighting has escalated to near-record levels.
Hours after the government officially ended the truce, a roadside bomb killed 27 villagers on a bus in southeast Sri Lanka, and a military vehicle was damaged in another blast in the same area later in the day. Of note, the bus was carrying a large number of children, at least three of which were killed in the explosion .
During the ensuing days over 60 insurgents and two soldiers were killed in clashes throughout the island.
India Arrests
On January 17, 2008, seven Sri Lankans, including one LTTE intelligence member, were arrested in Chennai, India. Indian intelligence revealed that the LTTE intelligence member was working as a taxi driver at a hotel and had been spying on Varadaraja Perumal, leader of the rival group, Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front.
Perumal is allegedly on LTTE’s hit list and moved to India in an effort to hide from the rebels. LTTE members may have attempted to target Perumal during his daughter’s wedding, scheduled in New Delhi next month.
Only three days later, Tamil Nadu police arrested two more people, who allegedly helped the recently arrested intelligence member to procure materials needed for making explosives. Although intelligence indicates LTTE members are operating within India, we believe that any potential violence will be targeted toward rival or Sri Lanka government officials.
Freedom Day Attacks
Despite the recent increase in fighting, the Sri Lankan government announced that the 60th Freedom Day celebrations would take place on February 4, 2008, as planned. An additional 4,100 troops will be stationed in Colombo to protect participants and spectators of the cultural and sporting events.
However, LTTE attacks on the capital city are likely to occur during the celebrations as fighting is no longer contained to the embattled north. Sri Lankan forces will continue to retaliate by inflicting heavy casualties on LTTE strongholds, and the conflict will likely continue for the long-term.
LTTE forces will use neighboring Tamil Nadu as a regrouping area to stage additional attacks against government forces as the turmoil on the island intensifies.
