Highlights
– Serbia’s Presidential election results will dictate future foreign policy outlook
– Nationalist sentiment is rising in Serbia
– Kosovo is a flashpoint issue
The much-anticipated January 20, 2008 Presidential elections in Serbia have now come and gone and there is still no clear winner. According to election rules, a winning candidate must surpass the 50 percent threshold to win the Presidential election or the top two candidates must enter into a runoff election on February 3rd. Although seven candidates vied for the Presidential role, only two were considered to be serious contenders as the election results played out—current President Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party won thirty-five percent of the vote and challenger, and Tomislav Nikolic, the Deputy Head of the Serbian Radical Party won 39 percent of the vote. Voter turnout was extremely high in this election at sixty-one percent, the highest voter participation since 2000 and a reflection of how seriously the Serbian population takes this election. The election is shaping up to be a repeat of the 2004 Presidential elections where Boris Tadic defeated Tomislav Nikolic.
Different Directions
Serbia is most definitely at a significant crossroads. The country can either move towards engagement with the West and international integration or more towards an isolationist stance with just Russia as an ally. The more liberal Tadic is pro-Western, in favor of European Union (EU) integration and market reforms. He is also more likely to be pressured into turning over war criminals to the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY).
Nikolic is almost the mirror opposite of Tadic. He is a fierce nationalist on his fourth Presidential bid. He is the deputy leader of the nationalist Serbian Radical Party, the leader of which, Vojislav Seselj is currently on trial for war crimes at the ICTY. He does not favor EU accession for Serbia, and has firmly stated that accused war criminals would not be handed over to the ICTY. He also favors reaching out to Russia, a traditional Serbian ally.
Kosovo: a Contentious Issue
Surveys of voter concerns indicate that while the future status of Kosovo is a concern, voters are more concerned with more practical matters such as living standards, employment and combating corruption. If true, then it is likely that many voters would choose Tadic as President. But Nikolic has managed to stir up a lot of emotion in Serbia, which resonates with the people and is wrapped up in nationalist fervor. At one point this fervor resulted in conflict in the Balkans, but despite the peace, some of the underlying angst still remains.
There is a still a sense in some parts of Serbia that no wrongdoing was committed and that the West is trying to bully them, including resentment against NATO for a humiliating ouster of Serb forces from Kosovo. The issue that most ignites nationalist sentiment and frustration is Kosovo. The impending reality that Kosovo will declare independence is now near, stirring up a great deal of anger and resentment. Most Serbs whether nationalist or liberal feel very strongly that Kosovo belongs to Serbia and is being taken away from them by the international community. Even though, many citizens would probably acknowledge that the loss of Kosovo is inevitable is still viewed as a black eye to the nation.
It is this pool of anger that the nationalists can tap into. One palatable manifestation of this anger is directed against country’s supporting Kosovo’s independence, like the United States and the United Kingdom. As a result, American and British election observers were banned from observing the election. Tomislav Nikolic has threatened to take tough measures against countries that recognize Kosovo’s independence. He has also used tough rhetoric in the past, calling for military intervention in Kosovo and threatening that if the government goes soft on Kosovo, then his party would not sit by calmly. Although he has toned down his rhetoric, there still is uncertainty as to how much trouble he can actually cause on the issue besides talk. Boris Tadic has also stood firm on the Kosovo issue, albeit without the menacing threats. Politically, neither Presidential candidate wants to known as the President who lost Kosovo.
Outlook
The run-off election will truly be a referendum on Serbia’s future and place in the world. Should Nikolic be victorious, we can expect a more bellicose and isolationist Serbia. A Tadic victory would portend a more engaged and cooperative Serbia. In the 2004 elections, Boris Tadic trumped Nikolic even though he trailed him in the first election round. It is likely this election will be similar. T the end of the day, many Serbs want a better life and standard of living—the candidate most likely to deliver that promise is Boris Tadic.
However, it is likely that the impending independence of Kosovo will inflame tensions in Serbia regardless of who wins the elections.
