Highlights
– Shiite rebels clash with security forces in northern Yemen, killing 30 people
– Al-Qaeda in Yemen vow to free jailed militants and threaten attacks in Yemen
– Yemeni security forces face a serious challenge in their effort to combat insurgents and existing al-Qaeda threats in the near to mid term
The New Year has ushered in a series of violent insurgent clashes and serious al-Qaeda threats against security forces for Yemen. Since early January 2008, government soldiers and Zaidi rebels–Shiite insurgents from northern Yemen–have been fighting again, breaking a 6-month-old cease-fire and killing 30 people .
Additionally, on January 13, 2008, al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) has renewed threats to attack in Yemen and vowed to free its prisoners, who were arrested for the July 2007 attack against Spanish tourists . With the recent resurgence of Shiite rebel clashes in Yemen, we are concerned about the government’s ability to effectively deter another possible AQY attack in the country. The violence in northern Yemen currently dominates the military forces’ and the government’s attention, which would conveniently make way for another possible terror attack in Yemen.
Three-Year Insurgency Reignites
In June 2004, Shiite cleric Hussein Badr Eddin al-Hawthi ordered his followers to change the Sunni-ruled government. His subsequent death one year later ignited a violent campaign against al-Hawthi’s followers and the Yemeni government. Since March 2005, thousands have died on both sides. In June 2006, neighboring Gulf countries, mainly Qatar, helped broker a cease-fire between the Yemeni government and the rebels (Previous Report). However, the cease-fire called for a number of strict stipulations from the government, including freeing previously jailed rebels, paying compensation to victims and rebuilding villages in the north. On the other hand, the rebels would turn in their weapons and exorcise al-Hawthi from the country. Unfortunately, neither side kept all their promises of the agreement.
Earlier this month, Yemeni troops shelled villages in the northern Saada province, one of the rebels’ strongholds. However, fighting worsened on January 9, 2008, when insurgents staged dawn attacks on army camps. Soldiers retaliated with heavy artillery, helicopter and tank cannon, resulting in the death of more than 30 people altogether.
More concerning, however, is the prospect for terrorists to take advantage of the military forces’ focus and concentration on the Shiite rebels and conduct their own operations elsewhere in Yemen.
AQ in Yemen Threatens to Attack
In a message posted January 12, 2008, on a prominent jihadist website, AQY vowed to free its mujahideen brothers from Yemen’s jails and to avenge the killings of its fellow militants. Since the July 2, 2007 attack on the Spanish tourists in Yemen, dozens of terrorists have been arrested (Previous Report). However, the group’s recent posting “orders” that the prisoners be freed and states that “the blood of Muslims will not be wasted.”
Such a threat from AQY has been made previously, when 23 militants including al-Qaeda operatives escaped out of a Sanaa jail in February 2006 (Previous Report). Some of these fugitives included the leaders of the 2000 USS Cole bombing and the 2002 attack on the French Limburg (Terrorist Attack and Terrorist Attack).
More Tension and Violence
Though the Yemeni government supports the U.S.’ global war in terror and has been successful in most of its counterterrorism operations, AQY has also been successful in conducting serious attacks and escaping from Yemeni prisons. Thus, the group has demonstrated its ability to carry out attacks and act upon its word in the past, which should make the Yemeni government a little more apprehensive about its effectiveness in deterring both rebel violence and terrorist attacks in the country.
In addition, sectarian violence and increasing threats from al-Qaeda may stir up fear in prospective foreign investors, particularly interested in oil investing opportunities. Earlier this month, Yemen accepted 25 of 30 bids from international companies, including Exxon Mobil, which it received for exploration rights in 11 offshore oil blocks. However, the escalation in violence, particularly from al-Qaeda, may eventually target Yemen’s oil development project and be the source of major economic instability for the Gulf country.