Highlights
– Mikhail Saakashvili election win still problematic
– Saakashvili faces a great deal of fence-mending domestically and internationally
– Instability in Georgia is likely in the near-term, but not violence
Prelude to the Presidential Elections
Mikhail Saakashvili has now officially won re-election as President of Georgia after a snap election last week. His victory is the culmination of a frenzied forty-one day campaign after he was forced to call early Presidential elections. Late last year, massive protests enveloped Georgia, with opposition groups and protestors calling for government reforms and Saakashvili’s ouster (Previous Report). While Saakashvili still retained many supporters in Georgia and his regime was considered a model for democratic reform for post-Soviet states, many Georgian were frustrated by what they viewed as Saakashvili’s slow pace of reform. His critics claimed that Saakashvili was starting to resemble his autocratic predecessors, undermining democratic reforms and not pursuing enough political and economic reforms.
The situation further deteriorated after the government used tear gas, rubber bullets, and water cannons to quell the protests and a State of Emergency was declared in Georgia by Saakashvili (Previous Report). Although the State of Emergency was later lifted, it seriously undermined the credibility of the Georgian government both at home and abroad. As the situation became untenable politically, Saakashvili called for early Presidential elections to demonstrate to the Georgian people that he was willing to let the people decide his suitability as Georgia’s future President.
Election Results and Controversy
This election is a far cry from the so-called Rose Revolution in 2003 that swept one of its heroes, Mikhail Saakashvili into the Presidential office in 2004. In the previous Presidential election, Saakashvili easily came into power with 97% of the vote. In the most recent election, Saakashvili won 53.47 % of the vote versus his rival, Levan Gachechiladze, a wine producer who received 25.67% of the vote. Despite his low numbers, Saakashvili only needed 50% of the vote to avoid a run-off election. It is believed Saakashvili won the election because he had more resources and determination than his opponent.
The Central Election Commission in Georgia has now confirmed Saakashvili’s victory, and observers for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) declared the election democratic despite some significant problems. The opposition, however, has declared the election fraudulent and is urging a recount. Accusations and allegations include stolen votes, fake ballot papers, discarded ballots, and illegally altered election reports. They also accuse Saakashvili of forcing prominent business leader to deny financial support to opposition groups. Massive protests have already broken out in Georgia with an estimated 60,000 protestors marching on January 14th demanding a recount. In addition, opposition groups are also lashing out against the OSCE and the United States for what they view as collusion with the Saakashvili government.
Future Rule and Stability in Georgia
Mikhail Saakashvili’s gambit to bring credibility back to his Presidency may be in trouble. Although the election results have been deemed legitimate, the opposition claims of fraud are sure to tarnish his Presidential win. It is likely we will witness further instability in Georgia before the situation improves. Saakashvili will have to mend a lot of fences with the opposition, which includes avoiding strong-arm tactics and speeding up the pace of reform in the country. Parliamentary elections will have to be conducted in an impeccable manner as well. On the international front, Saakashvili will have to prove his democratic credentials all over again in order to gain the sort of international respect that could gain admittance to such institutions as NATO. In addition, relations with Russia deteriorated dramatically under Saakashvili’s rule, which hurt Georgia more than Russia. The realization that Russia is still the big neighbor on the block has probably not been lost on Saakashvili and it is likely some form of rapprochement will take place. Finally, there is the possibility that calls for a recount/new election could invalidate Saakashvili’s rule. Should he be removed from power, Georgia would face more turbulence and instability but it still likely that any current opposition successor would still be pro-Western and committed to democratic reform.
