Highlights
– Increased tensions bring Sudan and Chad to the brink of war
– War would further impede efforts by the EU and the UN to deploy peacekeepers to the region
– War would lead to a further deterioration of the humanitarian crisis in Darfur and surrounding areas
Tensions between Chad and Sudan have escalated in the past week, pushing both countries towards the brink of war. Tensions have been heightened since violence broke out in the Darfur region of Sudan in February 2003. Since then, both sides have supported anti-government rebels opposing countries. On January 6, Chadian President Idriss Deby announced his forces would pursue the various rebel groups into Sudan where they are given safe haven and support by the Sudanese government. In response, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir stated his armed forces would propel any cross border invasion by Chadian security forces. On January 7, Chad’s air force bombed rebels near the Darfur city of Geneina, which is 50 miles from the Chadian border and 125 miles from the main eastern Chad town of Abeche. There are additional media reports of Chadian artillery aimed at Geneina.
Geneina and its surrounding area has been the scene of intense fighting between the Darfur rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Sudanese forces. Sudan accuses Chad of supporting JEM. The Sudanese air force began bombing rebels in and around Geneina on January 11 and continued bombing raids for three days.
Chad’s Rebel Problem
Chad believes Sudan is backing the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD), which has escalated its attacks since early December 2007. The UFDD has joined forces with the Assembly of Forces for Change (RFC) to increase their effectiveness against Chadian security services (Previous Report). Additionally, the United Front for Change (FUC) has increased its operations against the government. The forces are currently regrouping in the across the Sudan area, likely preparing to launch a counteroffensive against the Chadian security forces.
European Union Peacekeeping Forces
The increased tension between Chad and Sudan come amid the approval by European Union (EU) military officials for the proposed 3,500-strong peacekeeping force intended for Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR). The force, know as EUFOR Chad/CAR, has been repeatedly delayed with the most recent deployment date now set for sometime in early February. The delays had been caused by a lack of helicopters and fixed-wing aircrafts, which has now been resolved. A final vote will be made at the late January at the EU Council of Ministers meeting. The force, which has United Nations Security Council authority, is authorized to use of force.
However, increased tensions between Sudan and Chad could further cause delays. Additionally, in December 2007, the UFDD and RFC forces have threatened to attack the EU peacekeeping force, which is viewed by the rebel groups as biased towards Chadian President Deby. Increased tensions between Sudan and Chad will adversely affect the United Nation’s plans to deploy a 26,000-strong peacekeeping force in Darfur.
Bashir’s Gamble
With tensions high between Sudan and Chad, the threat of direct military action remains likely. Further adding to the likelihood of direct threat, the Sudanese government in Khartoum is determined to prevent the deployment of a proposed 26,000-strong force. Direct conflict would most likely delay the deployment, currently set for sometime around June, for some time, if not all together. Sudan is also opposed to the EU’s 3,500-strong peacekeeping force set to be deployed in February. Sudan benefits from the ongoing instability in the Darfur region and neighboring countries. The instability, and the currently undermanned AU/UN peacekeeping force, allows for Sudan to continue waging its violent campaign against the people of Darfur.
Direct fighting would lead to a further deterioration of the humanitarian crisis in Darfur and surrounding regions. So far at least 2.5 million people have been killed with 234,000 Darfur refugees, 178,000 displaced along the Darfur and Chad border, and 43,000 internally displaced persons (IDP) in Central Africa.
Outlook
While Sudan would benefit from direct conflict with Chad in the near-term, the long-term effects of war outweigh its possibilities, and Sudan benefits more in terms of it regional position from the status quo. Further, the increased negative impact on Sudan’s already diminished reputation in the international community is not desirable to the leaders in Khartoum. However, the ongoing threat of war may be enough to further delay the deployment of EUFOR, a goal of Khartoum. By continuing to support the Chadian rebels, Sudan will be able to sufficiently create enough instability to make the UN wary about its peacekeeping deployments. It is likely as the date for UN deployment approaches; Khartoum will again increase tensions with Chad. Regardless, we predict Sudan will do all it can to avoid war while keeping the pressure on both Darfur and Chad.
Chad—for its part—recognizes it does not have the military capability to defeat Sudan in a sustained conflict. The intense fighting between Chadian security forces and UFDD, FUC, and RFC rebels showed the ability of well-armed rebels to inflict significant losses on Chad’s forces. Therefore, direct confrontation between Chad and Sudan is not in Chad’s best interest.
However, Chadian president Deby is concerned about the threat the rebels pose to his presidency. Therefore, he will have to find a balance between actively pursuing the rebels while simultaneously avoiding creating a situation in which the EU, which will largely protect his rule, feels it must further delay its deployment.
