Highlights:
– Production of jihadist propaganda will likely continue to increase
– Propaganda will continue to be prepared for broader base appeal, assisting in recruitment efforts
– Technology use by jihadist groups will continue to become increasingly sophisticated and professional
This past year a number of jihadist media organizations have revealed a qualitative and quantitative improvement in the production and dissemination of jihadist propaganda. Specifically, jihadist media organizations have shown the ability to:
– Frequently and repeatedly produce and disseminate propaganda
– Rapidly respond to events in real-time
– Disseminate propaganda to an increasingly broad audience
– Utilize an array of online technologies to disseminate propaganda
– Interact directly with sympathizers and potential recruits
An analysis of these trends will be used to develop predictions for jihadist media operations in 2008.
Increased Production and Dissemination
Jihadist media organizations have shown an ability to produce and disseminate an increased number of videos and statements. For example, as of December 18, 2007, as-Sahab, al-Qaeda’s media productions arm, had released 95 videos – marking 2007 as it’s busiest year to date. This tempo has already far outpaced 2006 when as-Sahab released 58 tapes.
It is likely that as-Sahab, as well as other jihadist media organizations will continue to master the propaganda production and online dissemination process throughout 2008. Further, as these groups establish a secure sanctuary, as as-Sahab appears to have done in either Pakistan or Afghanistan, it is likely that these groups will be able to release statements and videos more frequently.
Increased Timeliness of Release
In addition jihadist media organizations have also displayed an ability to respond to events in real time. For example, as-Sahab was able to rapidly release a statement on the siege of the Red Mosque by Ayman al-Zawahiri (Previous Report). The siege at the Red Mosque lasted eight days – from July 3, 2007 to July 11, 2007, and as-Sahab released Zawahiri’s statement on the same day that the siege ended highlighting the network’s ability to respond to current events in near real-time.
As jihadist media organizations continue to master the propaganda production and dissemination process to produce more videos and statements, these groups will also be able to release videos and statement in a more rapid manner throughout 2008.
Broadened Range of Dissemination
Aside from the ability to rapidly and repeatedly produce videos and statements, jihadist media organizations have demonstrated an ability to broadly disseminate propaganda and ideology to a diverse set of demographics. For example, the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF) has demonstrated an ability to translate jihadist propaganda including statements from al-Qaeda leaders into multiple languages. Osama bin Ladin’s video entitled To the European Peoples, released on November 29, 2007, was transcribed and translated into English, Spanish, French, German, Turkish, and Italian within 24 hours (Previous Report).
Additionally, jihadist media organizations have previously announced the intention to propagate jihadist propaganda including videos to high-profile mainstream websites. Specifically, the Global Islamic Media Front announced the launch of a “Media Sword Campaign” in which participants were encouraged to disseminate jihadist propaganda to non-jihadi sites focusing on music, youth, and sports forums (Previous Report). Evidence of this campaign and other similar efforts are evident on mainstream sites like YouTube, which is home to a number of jihadist propaganda videos (Previous Report).
Throughout 2008, It is expected that jihadist media organizations will continue to translate messages from al-Qaeda leaders and other jihadist propaganda into other languages so that al-Qaeda messages can be accessed by an increasingly broad demographic. Al-Qaeda has shown a desire to recruit European citizens as “homegrown” militants willing to conduct attacks for al-Qaeda. The ability to translate propaganda into multiple languages and make this propaganda available through high profile and easily accessible websites is crucial to this recruiting effort.
Sophisticated Use of Online Technologies
In addition to launching and maintaining a number of technically sophisticated and interactive websites that serve as meeting points for geographically dispersed jihadists, jihadist media organizations have displayed an ability to utilize a number of advanced online technologies to disseminate propaganda and reach a broad range of sympathizers and potential recruits.
Jihadist media organizations have been quick to utilize Web 2.0 technologies in an effort to bolster the spread of jihadist propaganda. Selected jihadist websites have previously embraced the use of Really Simple Syndication (RSS) feeds as a means to quickly and efficiently disseminate propaganda to a broad audience (Previous Report). Specifically, the Islamic Army of Iraq utilizes RSS technology on its website to push content to sympathizers.
Jihadist media organizations have also initiated an effort to convert jihadist video propaganda into a cell phone friendly format. In August 2007, we noted the launch of a jihadist website specifically established to disseminated videos in a 3GP format, which is designed for easy use on mobile devices including cell phones (Previous Report).
Additionally, according to ABC News, Amyan al-Zawahiri, via as-Sahab, has previously used Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) technologies to produce video propaganda (Previous Report). Specifically, ABC News stated, “intelligence analysts are also investigating technical clues that (Amyan) Zawahri’s audio message was phoned in via computer phone, using voice over Internet Protocol, or VoIP.”
It is expected that jihadist media organization will continue to adopt and utilize new technologies throughout 2008 for the following reasons.
First, If jihadist media organizations always communicated or disseminated propaganda in the same manner then it is likely security services would eventually observe, detect, and disrupt the propaganda dissemination process and possibly arrest those jihadist media operatives responsible.
Second, the utilization of sophisticated online technologies such as RSS feeds, 3GP cell phone videos, and others allow jihadist media organizations to increase the availability of jihadist propaganda.
As such, it is likely that jihadist media organizations will continue to investigate new online technologies in an effort to increase the availability and accessibility of jihadist propaganda.
Constituent Relations
A number of jihadist clerics and sheiks have utilized online technologies such as PalTalk, an online chat service, to conduct live interviews or town hall style meetings. For example, in March 2006 Sheikh Abu Basir al-Tartousi hosted online “lessons” with interested students via the PalTalk chat service (Previous Report). Additionally, Al-Muharijoun leader, Sheik Bakri, has previously utilized the same PalTalk chat room service to interact with his constituents (Previous Report). The most famous example of this “town hall” style format is Ayman al-Zawahiri’s recent offer to answer questions posed directly by members of the Electronic Jihad and the media via an as-Sahab produced video.
It is likely that jihadist media organizations will continue to build relationships with sympathizers and supporters, as well as increase efforts to add new recruits. The ability of jihadist media organizations to translate “online supporters” into operatives willing to take up arms is crucial to al-Qaeda and the broader jihadist movement’s long-term viability.
2008 Outlook
Throughout 2008 we expect jihadist media organizations to continue to adapt and make use of new and sophisticated online technologies in order to continue to disseminate propaganda to sympathizers, operatives, as well as new audiences previously unexposed to jihadist ideology.