Highlights
– Islamist extremism will continue to present significant challenges to the region
– “Ultranationalism” on the rise; xenophobic attacks plague Germany
– Assessing lofty goals for EU reform; changes will occur slowly due to wide reaching “euroskepticism”
Three topics that will likely play a significant role in determining the security and political climate of the region in the coming year, including: the continual threat of Islamist extremism, the rising persistence of so-called “ultranationalism” and subsequent xenophobia, and finally, the new face of the European Union (EU), particularly assessing the relative success of recent EU-wide reforms to include the appointment of a new counter-terrorism official and the establishment of a permanent EU president.
Islamist Extremism Will Increase
Throughout 2007 a continuous trend of Islamist extremist ideology and activity throughout Western Europe has occurred. Further, Islamist militancy has taken hold in both the indigenous populations and second-generation ethnic Muslim immigrants. To date we have seen instances of Islamist extremism in the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Italy, Denmark, and the Netherlands
Notable incidents involving Islamist extremists include:
– August 2007: Italian authorities arrest three running “terror school” in Perugia (Previous Report)
– June 29 and 30, 2007: failed terror plots in London and Glasgow (Previous Report)
– May 2007: Spanish authorities arrest 15 in broad anti-terror operation (Previous Report)
– April 2007: First Moroccan born Danish citizen convicted of supporting terrorism (Previous Report)
In an attempt to thwart future terrorist attacks, European police have begun strengthening counter-terrorism tactics to include physical arrests and detainment procedures and the establishment of firm anti-terrorism laws. However, despite a substantial crackdown on Islamic extremism and recent successes in anti-terrorism raids, trials and increasingly subsequent convictions, Islamic extremists continue to operate in and target Western Europe.
Further, ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan will continue to fan the flames of Islamic extremism. To this end, we believe the recent trend of Islamic extremist supporters residing and operating in the broader EU will continue into the year 2008.
Ultranationalism Also Rising
Increasing concern abounds that Europe’s resident multiculturalism is steadily increasing the region’s vulnerability to foreign terrorists immigrating to EU member states (Previous Report). The constant threat of terrorism, coupled with a growing Muslim immigrant population has led to a significant surge of xenophobia in the region. Further, in the past year these sentiments have become increasingly pronounced as political parties gain increasing support from the native public and seek to expand previously considered “radical” plans for immigration reform and calls for national pride.
To this end, far-right groups have noticeably increased their activities advocating violence against ethnic minorities and foreign visitors. We believe this steadily intensifying xenophobia will ultimately lead to anger and further alienation of increasingly victimized immigrant populations suffering from limited opportunities for economic advancement, rising unemployment, and poor housing conditions. Faced with these circumstances, Europe will suffer from increased radicalization within its impoverished Islamic immigrant communities, as well as an equal and opposite reaction from native Europeans angered by the rise in immigrant communities.
Additionally, circumstances leading to increased xenophobia occurred in 2007 as a result of failed terror attacks in London and Glasgow. The attacks effectively spurned a new type of xenophobia, as the individuals arrested in connection with these plots were doctors, part of a professional class of physicians seeking further training, education, and employment in the UK. As they were not considered traditional immigrants many citizens now fear that these types of professional guest workers may have ill intentions towards the UK during their temporary stay.
Outside of the UK similar instances of nationalist pride, anti-immigration policies, and xenophobic behavior have occurred.
• On the six-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Belgium authorities arrested approximately 154 people for taking part in a banned protest in Brussels against the so-called “Islamization of Europe.” The mayor of Brussels banned the protest for fear it would infuriate the city’s vast Muslim immigrant population. Protest organizers represented the group Stop the Islamization of Europe (SOIE) and received support from Belgium’s far-right Vlaams Belang party (Previous Report), a far-right party calling for a stop to the registrations for newcomers, a restriction on the number of mosques, and the expulsion of radical Imams from Belgium.
• In September 2007, the German far-right National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD) surpassed the co-governing Social Democrats in the East German state of Saxony. An opinion poll indicated approximately nine per cent of voters cast their ballots for the far-right party compared to only eight per cent for the ruling Social Democrats. Additionally, a recent published survey indicated one-eighth of all Germans considered voting for far-right parties that embrace neo-Nazi ideals and an overarching xenophobic political platform.
Risk to Germany Will Increase
Despite the equally rising presence of “ultranationalism” and xenophobia in neighboring EU member states, we remain particularly concerned about Germany, mainly due to recent instances of violent attacks occurring in the country. A number of recent “ultranationalist” and brutal attacks have occurred, including,
– August 2007: Iraqi man was abused and beaten with a baseball bat in the third xenophobic attack in the country in less than one week
– August 2007: eight ethnic Indians were chased down and beaten by a mob yelling, “Foreigners out!”
– September 2007: four Eastern European students were attacked with pepper spray and subjected to xenophobic insults after asking three cyclists for directions
We remain concerned about the rising instances of “ultranationalism” and xenophobia throughout the region. As European governments consider ways to toughen their immigration policies, we remain skeptical these efforts will yield positive results due to the increasing popularity of far-right political platforms.
European Union Reforms Will Proceed Slowly
Despite the growing nationalism issues, much of Europe is evolving in terms of its security, politics, and economic climate. Following nearly six months of deliberation, in September 2007, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Javier Solana appointed Gilles de Kerchove d’Ousselghem as the EU’s new Counter-Terrorism Coordinator (Previous Report).
In the aftermath of the 2004 Madrid train bombings, EU officials created the EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator position. However, in what is largely considered hasty action to combat terrorism in the face of increasing threat, EU officials set seemingly unachievable expectations leading to intense scrutiny regarding the success and perceived failures of the EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator role.
However, despite criticism of the position, a number of advancements in the field of counter-terrorism have been made since the original creation of the EU Counter-terrorism Coordinator position. The positive actions have included:
• The adoption of an EU-wide arrest warrant applied to more than 150 cases; reducing the average wait for a suspect’s surrender from nine months to six weeks
• Improvements in tracking and controlling the availability of explosives and detonators across the EU
However, EU officials continue to seek more improvements in counter-terrorism efforts. In October 2007, British Justice Minister Jack Straw stated the EU must improve anti-terror measures to acquire, “better and more effective and speedy coordination.”
Attempts to strengthen the role of the EU materialized on December 13, 2007 when EU leaders traveled to Lisbon, Portugal to sign a much-awaited reform treaty (Previous Report). The “Treaty of Lisbon” effectively replaces prior attempts to establish an EU-wide constitution halted by French and Dutch voters in referendums in 2005.
EU leaders brokered the treaty in October 2007, after overcoming objections from Italy and Poland. Akin to the formerly rejected EU constitution, the treaty includes plans for a European foreign policy supreme officer and a permanent EU president. Similar to its appeal for a stronger EU, the new treaty drops all references to an EU flag or anthem; two highly controversial elements of prior referendums.
As a result of strengthening anti-terrorism, political, and ruling reforms little real change will be noticed. Specifically, the December 2007 “Lisbon Treaty” will likely achieve its purpose, to improve and strengthen the EU’s footprint on the world stage, however it will have little impact as so-called “eurosceptics” remain steadfast in their opposition to a more federalized Europe.
