Highlights
– Al-Qaeda will continue its efforts over the coming year to develop capabilities for future large-scale attacks against the homeland
– The US has seen several small groups of homegrown extremists emerge over the past few years, and it is likely that this trend will continue in 2008
– We have noted a slight increase in direct actions carried out by the animal rights and environmental movements over the past year and we expect this trend to continue in 2008
Islamic Terrorism In The Homeland Will Reemerge
Al-Qaeda will remain the terrorist organization that poses the greatest threat to the US homeland in 2008. Given the presidential elections and a lull in activity over the past few years, we believe it is likely al-Qaeda will conduct an act of terrorism inside the United States this year. Future large-scale strikes will reflect al-Qaeda’s targeting priorities—inflicting mass casualties while simultaneously damaging the US economy.
The US has seen several small groups of homegrown extremists emerge over the past few years, and it is likely that this trend will continue in 2008. While, the majority of these cells did not possess a significant threat capability, they serve to highlight the continued threat posed by individuals who are attempting to develop plans for attacks inside the US.
Muslim-Americans are more educated and integrated into US society than those in many European and Asian countries, and therefore the US faces a lower threat of homegrown radicalization in the near-term than many other nations. We continue to believe that the US is approximately 10-15 years behind the social demographics present in countries such as the UK and France, affording the US an opportunity to ensure that these communities are properly integrated into society. However, if efforts are not made to promote integration, some cells will likely form the basis of a domestic extremist network that could mature and pose a greater threat in the coming years.
Border Security Vulnerabilities Will Continue
Inadequate monitoring practices along the borders of Mexico and Canada will continue to represent a significant threat to the homeland. While border security has improved over the past several years, remote entry points with lower security capabilities will continue to present opportunities for extremists or criminals to gain access into the country.
– Government investigators have uncovered several important security gaps that potential terrorists and criminals could exploit. As part of investigations, the US government has been able to smuggle materials resembling radioactive substances across US borders undetected, particularly in areas that are unmonitored, unmanned, or both (Previous Report).
Additionally, authorities have discovered several sophisticated underground tunnels used for drug smuggling and human trafficking. This threat of extremist smuggling was highlighted earlier this year as authorities uncovered a plot that potentially involved a Mexican drug cartel smuggling foreign extremists into the US to attack Fort Huachuca in Arizona (Previous Report). Despite attempts to prevent criminal organizations from using these passageways, cartels and other smuggling rings have created new tunnels, and it is likely that this trend will continue in 2008.
Aryan Extremists Will Continue to Reorganize
In recent years, several prominent groups in the Aryan movement have sustained management setbacks from arrests and deaths that have led to many internal factions. However, the movement remains active as extremists continue to utilize the Internet’s widespread reach, accessibility, and appeal. Website forums and video sharing sites are attracting a significant number of visitors and offer the movement a medium with direct access and the capability to attract potential recruits. Additionally, some Aryan groups on the Internet are increasingly attempting to redefine and tone down violent themes to better evade law enforcement scrutiny by using private bulletins and embedded codes. These trends will continue in the coming year.
In the mid to long-term, white supremacists will seek to align their ideologies with emerging political issues that affect everyday domestic life. By using the Internet, activists hope to inspire a nationwide “call to arms” that will violently confront issues of illegal immigration, globalization, and multiculturalism.
Animal Rights and Environmental Protestors Will Be Active
Over the past year, we have noted a slight increase in direct actions carried out by members of animal rights and environmental advocacy and protest groupings. We believe that a significant portion of this rise can be attributed to the renewed campaign launched in December 2006 by animal rights protestors targeting the New York Stock Exchange and other financial entities connected to Huntingdon Life Sciences (Previous Report). We anticipate continued growth in nonviolent protests against targeted companies in the coming year, by both animal rights activists and members of the environmental advocacy groups. Additional actions are likely due to the perceived success of previous 2007 actions, namely several financial institutions that have divested interests in Huntington Life Sciences.
Additionally, we have observed several new tactics and trends emerge over the past year. In particular, the Animal Rights Militia released several communiqués claiming contamination of various products made by targeted companies at the retail level (Previous Report, Previous Report), and the Animal Liberation Front flooded a target’s house in California (Previous Report). We believe there is the potential for these tactics to spread among activists in the coming year due to their perceived success and the interconnectivity of the movement. However, it is unlikely that they will become as popular as other methods that have long been used by the most militant activists.
We continue to believe that it is unlikely that a majority of activists in both movements will resort to more militant activity that poses a danger to humans or results in significant property damage, such as using arson; however, lone individuals or small militant cells undertaking such action remains a cause for concern. As such, we expect several incidents involving arson and other militant forms of protest to take place in 2008, however, the majority of actions in the coming year will likely be non-violent demonstrations and acts of civil disobedience.
