Highlights:
– Russian elections will change little in overall foreign policy
– Countering US missile shield in Europe will remain priority for Russia
– Turkey and Western relations will see improvement in 2008, as long as Turkey’s PKK strategy is supported internationally
Foreign Policy Trends of Russia and Turkey and Western Interests
Both Turkey’s and Russia’s relations with Europe and the United States have been difficult in the last year. Russia in particular has become increasingly bellicose in their rhetoric especially towards the United States. Turkey has been more circumspect—engaging the West but increasingly impatient with Western policies. Looking ahead to 2008, it is likely that certain issues of concern are likely to define foreign affairs between these states in the upcoming year.
Russia Will Continue to Backslide
Russia will be conducting Parliamentary elections in March 2008, and the likely candidate to win the Presidency is Dmitry Medvedev, a Vladimir Putin protégé (Previous Report). Many consider him a liberal and unencumbered by the KGB/intelligence agency past of the Kremlin power elite, raising speculation that there may be some shifts in Russian policies. Unfortunately, Medvedev has very little foreign policy experience, and instead of new leadership presenting new opportunities or a clean slate in foreign affairs, we anticipate the next year or two, to remain the same in Russian foreign affairs. However, it is possible that the bellicose rhetoric that has characterized Russia’s current stance towards the US may be toned down under new leadership, but actual policies will remain unchanged.
Russian foreign policy concerns regarding the West include:
• Proposed US missile defense shield deployed in Europe
• Independence status of Kosovo
• Dealing with Western critiques of the Russian election process and state of democratic freedoms in Russia
• Withdrawal from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE)
• Threats to target strategic missiles at Europe in response to the US missile shield proposal
• Weakening the human rights/election monitoring components of the OSCE
• Closing down foreign Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and foreign financed NGOs and human rights organizations operating within Russia
• Dealing with Western anxiety over Iran’s nuclear programs, and Russian engagement of Iran
• US policies and actions in Iraq and Afghanistan
Future Outlook/Trends
Russia’s main foreign policy objectives will continue to be avoiding Western encroachment in Europe, countering US influence worldwide, and increasing its energy supplier dominance. We anticipate that Russia will pursue these objectives in 2008 with a mixture of both aggression and engagement.
• The Russian government will continue to take advantage of changes in European governments in order to exert its influence. Russia already plans to engage the new Polish President, Donald Tusk, over the missile shield issue with the aim to change Poland’s position on hosting a component of the US missile shield.
• We also anticipate that despite a relatively new government in the UK, Russian relations with the UK will remain tense for the foreseeable future.
• The Russian government will continue to remove foreign influences monitoring Russian democratic rights.
• We anticipate Russia will not back down from their stance against independence for Kosovo, and will continue to cause diplomatic strain over this issue.
• We anticipate Russia will continue its opposition to the proposed missile shield deployment in Europe and not accept a middle ground.
• Russia will continue military shows of strength by conducting air and naval patrols reminiscent of the Cold War days, modernizing weapon systems, and withdrawing from or suspending other arms control treaties.
• Engagement with Iran will continue as a direct means to counter the US. We can anticipate more high level visits between Moscow and Tehran.
Turkey Will Struggle With Competing Identifies, But Look East
Turkey has experienced a very tumultuous year where many domestic issues and problems have spilled over into foreign policy concerns. Relations with both the US and Europe have been somewhat strained, but there is a profound sense by the Turkish government to keep engaged with the West. To date, Turkish foreign policy has been mostly conciliatory and sometimes recalcitrant, but a different tone in foreign affairs is now emerging with a renewed sense of confidence especially over the PKK issue in northern Iraq.
Turkish foreign policy concerns include:
• Western concerns and critiques over Turkey’s human rights record
• US policies in the Middle East, namely Iraq
• Resolving the impasse on Cyprus
• Improving relations with Greece
• European Union ascension talks and concerns the EU is not fairly considering the Turkish candidacy
• Treatment of Turks in Europe
• Anger over European reluctance to extradite PKK members
• Combating the PKK stronghold in northern Iraq to prevent attacks in Turkey
• Armenian Genocide resolutions in the US Congress
Future Outlook/Projections
In the coming year, Turkey will continue to focus its foreign policy objectives on combating the PKK extra-territorially, as well as improving its relations with other states and institutions. Very little in terms of policy objectives will change in the upcoming year, but we anticipate a more aggressive and confident Turkey to be fully engaged in world affairs.
• We anticipate that Turkey will continue to launch and increase operations into northern Iraq. Turkey’s ground, aerial, and artillery forays into northern Iraq will be conducted without apology or hesitation.
• We believe that as long as they have tacit US approval and intelligence, it is unlikely that critiques from other governments or the Iraqi government will stop the Turkish government until they are satisfied with a result.
• Turkey will continue to push for the extradition of PKK members abroad—there has recently been some momentum on this issue and it is likely the Turkish government will demand further cooperation on this issue.
• Improving relations with Greece will continue. The Greek Prime Minister is to visit Ankara in the New Year, and it is likely that the Turkish government will keep building on rapprochement with Greece. The process is fragile, however, and any type of embarrassing incident could derail the process.
• The Cyprus issue will not be resolved anytime soon, but it is possible talks could resume within the next year. Turkey has made it very clear they want the issue settled under UN parameters.
• Turkey will continue to institute political and economic reforms for a potential EU bid, but patience with the EU is rapidly running out after numerous setbacks.
• If no discernible progress is made in the next year, it is possible the EU talks could be put on hold indefinitely, severely straining relations with Europe.
• Turkey’s relations with the US are likely to remain cordial while the US supports Turkish actions against the PKK.
• Turkey’s relations with the US would be strained if the Armenian Genocide Resolution is resurrected in Congress.
