Highlights
– Before ending emergency law, Musharraf enacted constitutional amendments to provide legal cover for his actions since imposing emergency rule
– In the near-term, Musharraf was able to achieve his immediate goals by imposing emergency rule
– In the long-term, it is in Musharraf’s best interest to allow free and fair elections on January 8th
On December 15, 2007, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf ended emergency rule, exactly six weeks to the day of when he suspended the constitution and dissolved the Supreme Court.
Musharraf first imposed emergency law on November 3, 2007, citing the surge in violence caused by Islamic militants based in the northwest and what Musharraf claims as “interference by the judiciary.” President Musharraf has insisted that his emergency rule saved Pakistan from the rising threat from pro-Taliban and al Qaeda-linked militants.
Changes in the Law
Before lifting emergency rule on December 15, 2007, Musharraf enacted specific constitutional amendments that were designed to provide legal cover for the actions he took when emergency law was first imposed.
In a move that was likely made for self-protection from future challenges, Musharraf restored the constitution with an executive order stating that any provision made during the last six weeks of emergency rule, “shall not be called in question by or before any court.” Another order allows Musharraf to issue future orders should problems of implementation emerge and like the first provision, this cannot be challenged in any court. Because these provisions were issued under a state of emergency, they automatically become law.
The amendments issued before ending the emergency law, however, will not deter President Musharraf’s rivals. Opposition parties and politicians are vowing to participate in the January 8, 2007, parliamentary elections, despite the belief that Musharraf may influence the polls to ensure a victory. Additionally, some opposition politicians have vowed to have Musharraf impeached or pursue treason charges against the former army chief.
Emergency Rule Fall Out
Some critics have agreed that imposing emergency law has worked for Musharraf, at least in the near-term. According to Talat Masood, a retired general and political analyst, “In the narrow sense, it has been successful for him. But in the long term, it has damaged him immensely. He has lost his popularity, credibility, and people are not going to accept him, except under duress.”
However, in the near-term, emergency law can be interpreted as a success for Musharraf for a number of reasons. During the time of the announcement last month, the Supreme Court was reviewing a challenge to Musharraf’s eligibility to serve another term as President. According to those within Musharraf’s inner circle, it was widely believed that the Supreme Court was going to rule against the Pakistani president and having him barred from the election.
By suspending the constitution, Musharraf was able to purge the hostile Supreme Court judges who could have terminated his rule. Now, the Supreme Court has been realigned with Musharraf loyalists.
The January 8th Election
The ultimate success of emergency law will be seen in the outcome of the January 8, 2007 parliamentary elections. Musharraf has promised free and fair elections. Much of the world will be watching to see if Musharraf is serious about restoring democracy in Pakistan.
Intially, early polls suggested free and fair elections would result in a three way split in parliament between the parties of former prime ministers (PM) Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, and President Musharraf. However, on December 18, 2007 Pakistan’s Election Commission upheld an election ban on Sharif, dismissing the former PM’s challenges to the ban. Since Nawaz Sharif’s brother, Shahbaz Sharif, is also barred from running in the elections it is unclear who will run in Sharif’s place or if his party will again consider a boycott of the elections.
Regardless, none of the three major parties are expected to win an outright majority in the 342-seat National Assembly, which is likely to create a divided parliament between the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League-Q, Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party, and Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N.
Future Outlook
President Musharraf is under intense domestic and international pressure to ensure the January 8, 2007 parliamentary elections are conducted fairly. However, there remains a possibility that Musharraf will face a hostile Parliament pressing for his prosecution or impeachment over his actions of the last month.
With polls predicting a divided parliament, Musharraf may be tempted to interfere in the elections to ensure someone from his party becomes Prime Minister. However, according to Ayesha Jalal, a professor of history at Tufts University, a crisis would certainly emerge and create serious instability if Musharraf interferes in any way.
In the end, it could be in President Musharraf’s interest to conduct free elections, mainly to avoid an uprising.
By declaring emergency rule, Musharraf has been able to tighten his hold on power in the run up to the January elections. However, while he has tightened his hold on power institutionally, his popularity in Pakistan and around the world has seriously deteriorated.