Highlights
– Presidential election expected to be closest race in country’s history
– Credibility of elections questioned by NGOs, opposition parties, EU
– Election-related violence will continue in lead up to December 27 elections
On December 27, 2007, Kenyans will vote in presidential, parliamentary, and local council elections in the fourth election since pluralism was established in 1992. With closely contested elections, the results could lead to civil unrest and instability in the country. As Kenya also has an important role in East Africa, prolonged civil unrest could affect other countries in the region, and impact economic development as Kenya has the largest economy in East Africa.
Recent Allegations
On December 10, 2007, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)’s presidential candidate Raila Odinga accused the government of bribing voters. The ODM is the main opposition party. President Mwai Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU) rejected the claims, arguing the ODM was attempting to rally support for protests if it loses.
During his tenure, President Kibaki has improved basic freedoms but has failed to make an impact against corruption. The election is expected to be the closest presidential election in the country’s history, raising fears of civil unrest if the results are not viewed as credible.
The most recent polls indicate Odinga is ahead of President Kibaki. Former foreign minister Kalonzo Musyoka, of the Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-Kenya), is also running for president, but is significantly behind both Kibaki and Odinga. Additionally, the Electoral Commission cleared former cabinet minister Chris Murungaru on December 9, 2007, to run as the Narc-Kenya candidate after losing the PNU primary to the incumbent.
Corruption Plagues Prior and Future Election
According to a poll conducted by the Africa Center for Open Governance, a majority of Kenyans cite corruption as a key concern. However, the country currently lacks the necessary legislation and political will among elected officials to effectively combat corruption.
Senior ODM members met with the US ambassador to Kenya to express their concerns about bribery. The Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC) has also established a unit to investigate bribery of voters. Both the KACC and the Coalition for Accountable Political Party Financing have released recent reports detailing corruption and bribery that occurred during the November 2007 party nominations.
Both groups expect bribery and corruption to continue to be an issue leading up to the December 27th elections. Recent reports chronicling past and future corruption include,
• A report by the United Kingdom released on December 4, 2007, predicted the upcoming elections would have little effect on improving governance and fighting corruption.
• A report released on December 10, 2007, found that politicians used 900,000 shillings (US$13.6 million) to bribe voters during the during the November 2007 primaries.
• A report released by 22 non-governmental organizations, under Constitution and Reform Education Consortium (Creco) umbrella, stated the performance of the Electoral Commission (ECK), police and political parties indicated the poll would not be free and fair.
European Union (EU) election monitors were deployed to Kenya on November 25, 2007. The election observers warned that ongoing violence would affect the credibility of the elections. To augment election oversight, the African Union (AU) is also expected to deploy election observers as well.
Violence
Violence has been increasing in the two months leading up to the December 2007 elections. The internal party primaries in November 2007 saw a dramatic spike in violence. The violence has led to over 16,000 internally displaced persons (IDP), especially in the western Mount Elgon district and the Kuresoi area of the Rift Valley province.
At least 39 people have died in election related violence, with 16 deaths in the Rift Valley province alone. Additionally, dozens of houses have been razed. Among the violence, a parliamentary candidate was killed in Nairobi on December 9, 2007. It was unclear whether the murder was politically motivated. In response to the growing violence in Mount Elgon, police have recruited locals to serve as reserve officers to stop militia attacks.
The Way Ahead
With the election less than three weeks away, tensions in Kenya will continue to increase. Violence will also continue to increase, mostly occurring in the Mount Elgon district and the Kuresoi area of the Rift Valley province. However, sporadic violence can be expected throughout the country, including in Nairobi.
With non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the EU already questioning the credibility of the elections, it is unlikely election monitors will judge the elections as free and fair. With the election likely to remain close, the losing party will likely contest the election. Large-scale demonstrations are likely to occur, especially in Nairobi.
Regardless of who wins the elections, the country will continue to be plagued by corruption. President Kibaki made anti-corruption a key part of his 2002 campaign platform. Despite improvements in the economy, Kibaki has been unable to make progress in fighting corruption due to its pervasiveness and integration throughout Kenyan politics.
Kenya’s economy will continue to improve in the mid-term in the absence of large-scale civil unrest following the election results. Eradicating corruption will remain a primary concern of Kenyans, though the extent of corruption will make it difficult for progress to be made in the near-term.
