Highlights
– The Kosovo negotiations have reached a stalemate
– It is unlikely that the Kosovo Albanian government will wait much longer for independence
– External powers are divided on the Kosovo issue
The final round of Kosovo talks have ended in failure, opening up the very real possibility that Kosovo will declare independence unilaterally—dividing the international community and increasing tensions between Serbia, the minority Serb population and majority Albanian population in Kosovo. As the December 10, 2007, deadline (Previous Report) approaches for the United Nations (UN) to issue a final report on the status of Kosovo, last ditch efforts by concerned parties are underway to prevent a showdown.
It has been almost a year since the UN commissioned study, a Comprehensive Proposal for Kosovo Status Settlement was submitted by Martti Ahtisaari, the Special Envoy of the Secretary General of the United Nations for the Future Status Process for Kosovo. The plan basically outlined a series of reforms that needed to take place in Kosovo under international supervision that would lead to de facto independence.
However, attempts to translate the “Ahtisaari Plan” into a UN mandate and Security Council resolution failed earlier in the year. Russia refused to accept the resolution and threatened to veto it—as a result, the resolution was withdrawn and parties were sent back to the negotiating table brokered by the troika of the European Union, the United States and Russia.
Deteriorating Negotiations
However, over the course of the past year, negotiations have not gone well. The majority Kosovo Albanian government has threatened to unilaterally declare independence, frustrated and impatient with the endless negotiations and eager to shed Kosovo’s uncertain status as a UN protectorate. The Serbian government in turn has refused to cede sovereignty of Kosovo. Russia has sided with Serbia in this position, while the US and the EU are moving towards the recognition of Kosovo even without official UN Security Council sanction.
Within the EU however, a number of countries remain concerned about or do not support Kosovo independence without UN sanction. Part of the problem is that some states feel that unilateral Kosovo independence would not be legitimate, and that recognizing Kosovo’s independence would set a precedent and embolden ethnic minorities elsewhere to claim territory.
The Kosovo issue is now at a stalemate, and concerned parties are wondering who will make any provocative moves and what the consequences may be. Should violence break out, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which is still providing security for Kosovo, has pledged to increase its forces if the need arises.
A New EU Plan?
The EU is pondering a last minute effort to buy additional time on deciding the Kosovo issue. Ostensibly, the EU wants to convince Kosovo Albanians not to declare independence at least until early 2008. This is to avoid a showdown with Russia and convince the Russian government that progress is being made in Kosovo—hopefully convincing Russia to rescind its opposition to independence. The tentative EU proposal includes the following components:
• The EU will replace the UN as the civilian administration in Kosovo and work with NATO
• The EU will supervise the implementation of the “Ahtisaari Plan” and bear responsibility for the reforms
• The government of Kosovo will have to accept the plan, protect ethnic Serbs and strengthen the rule of law
Outlook
The EU is obviously trying to demonstrate that the Kosovo Albanians can work with the international community in order to be deemed worthy of acquiring independence. However, this approach may be problematic.
The Kosovo Albanian government’s acceptance of EU administration with a clear mandate to independence is one thing—an unclear or delayed mandate may not be as acceptable. In addition, the Kosovo Albanian government feels that after eight years as a UN protectorate, it should no longer have to prove itself, and a decision on the future status of Kosovo needs be made once and for all.
Regarding Russia, it is unlikely a delay will change its perspective unless further concessions are forthcoming. Russia certainly was not a proponent of the “Ahtisaari Plan” in the first place. Russian diplomats are also trying to steer the issue back to the UN Security Council in an effort to stave off any unilateral declarations of independence by Kosovo.
The Kosovo issue has now reached critical mass and we will likely see some major developments in the next few weeks.
