Highlights
− According to the NIE, Iran halted its nuclear program in 2003
− The NIE contradicts many of the recent accusations against Iran
− The US is likely to keep its strategy of applying pressure against Tehran
On December 3, 2007, the United States released a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that contradicts recent assertions that Iran is determined to develop nuclear weapons. A collective assessment of the 16 members of the US Intelligence Community, the latest NIE stated, “We judge with high confidence that in the fall of 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.”
The NIE’s assessment that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2005 is likely to complicate US efforts to label Iran a nuclear threat and to obtain further support for a third round of sanctions.
Differing Assessment
In recent months, the US has stepped up rhetoric against the Iranian regime regarding its pursuit of nuclear weapons and disregard of international opinion. Just last month at a news conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, both President Bush and Sarkozy discussed joint efforts to convince Tehran to suspend its nuclear ambitions. On October 17, 2007, President Bush made a reference to World War III, indicating that war with Iran was in the making to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
The recently released NIE is at odds with an earlier intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and intentions conducted in 2005. The prior 2005 estimate indicated that Iran was determined to develop nuclear weapons. After release of the 2007 NIE, US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley claimed the new report confirms that Iran once had a secret nuclear arms development program. He also stated that the NIE shows Iran continues to produce enriched uranium in defiance of international calls for suspension.
Strategy Will Remain
The release of the NIE comes at a time when the US is trying to win support from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to implement further sanctions against Tehran. It is likely in the near term that Russia and China will continue to oppose further sanctions against Iran based on the latest findings.
While some key assertions regarding Iran’s nuclear program have changed, the US strategy involving Iran is not likely to change. The US will continue its effort to build international support for the implementation of further strict sanctions against Tehran.
According to National Security Advisor Hadley, the new NIE could even be considered a victory for the Bush Administration. Hadley claims President Bush’s consistent warnings, constant pressure, and tough sanctions are keeping Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Because of this, the US is not expected to change its current strategy with Iran.
While France and the United Kingdom will likely continue supporting US efforts for further sanctions against Iran, the US will find it more difficult getting support from countries such as Russia, China, and Germany, as the new NIE does not support recent accusations against Iran.
Future Outlook
The probability of a unilateral strike by the US against Iranian nuclear facilities is not likely in the near-term. The nuclear issue was the central issue dividing the US and Iran. As such, the US has been on a campaign to build an international coalition against Iran, on the premise that Iran’s leaders were pursuing nuclear weapons. If this is not the case, the international coalition may split and obtaining support from China or Russia will prove more difficult.
Despite the new NIE findings, it does not negate the fact that the US believes that Iran has been playing a destabilizing role in Iraq. Because of this, the US will keep pressure on Iran. Also, many within the Bush administration believe that heavy pressure is what kept Iran from acquiring a nuclear arsenal in the first place, and will likely use this argument to convince other nations from easing pressure on Tehran.
