Highlights
– A month-long ceasefire between government and rebels ends
– UFDD and RFC announce cooperation against government forces
– Instability likely to continue in mid to long-term
The Libyan-brokered October 26, 2007, cease-fire between the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) and the Chad government collapsed on November 26, 2007. Since then, three intense battles between government and rebel troops have erupted. The UFDD is comprised primarily of members of the Gorane clan. The government, led by Chadian President Idriss Deby, is primarily composed of members of the Zaghawa clan.
The Assembly of Forces for Change (RFC) has also renewed fighting with the government troops. The Chadian Air Force bombed RFC forces on December 1, 2007, due to suspicions that the rebels were planning an attack on the capital, N’Djamena. Additionally, recent fighting between the United Front for Change (FUC) and Chadian troops began on November 30th. United Front for Change troops are from the Tama clan.
As a result of the renewed fighting, President Deby fired Defense Minister Mahamat Nour Abdelkerim on December 1st. Nour was appointed Defense Minister in March 2007 following a peace agreement between his rebel FUC troops and the Chad government. Due to the ongoing fighting between his United Front for Change tribal group and Chadian government troops, Nour is currently taking refuge in the Libyan embassy in N’Djamena.
Increased cooperation between rebel groups against Chad government forces will likely continue in the near to mid-term, and may prove problematic for President Deby and his push for a cease-fire.
The Darfur Effect
The situation along the Darfur-Chad border remains dire. In November 2007, Chad declared a state of emergency along its eastern border with Darfur due to ethnic fighting between the Tamas and Zaghawas that left over 20 dead. The ongoing violence in Darfur has resulted in 236,000 Darfur refugees and 173,000 internally displaced persons (IDP) relocating to Chad, causing a destabilizing effect on both the Central African Republic (CAR) and Chad. Sudanese and Chadian rebels routinely seek refuge on the other side of the borders, often resulting in violence in the refugee camps.
Of note, an EU peacekeeping force destined for Chad and the CAR (Previous Report), and a promised 26,000-strong African Union-United Nations Darfur peacekeeping force, have been repeatedly delayed and have yet to deploy to the region.
Ongoing Hostilities Expected
The UFDD and RFC announced on December 2, 2007, that they are coordinating attacks against Chadian government troops. Both groups operate in the eastern part of the country, near the Darfur border. The groups stated they would continue to operate in their separate areas but would coordinate attacks to increase effectiveness against Chadian troops. Following the three major attacks, the UFDD secretary general Abakar Tollimi stated that the rebels are regrouping and planning new, intense attacks.
The Chadian government is likely to continue to fight the FUC and UFDD rebels in the mid to long-term, unless political progress can be made. If the EU force is eventually deployed, it will likely provide increased stability in the refugee camps. However, it remains unclear whether the EU force would create overall greater stability in eastern Chad.
In December 2007, The RFC and the UFDD threatened they would attack EU forces if they are deployed to Chad. Attacks by Chadian rebels on the EU force could lead to an early withdrawal of forces, leading to deterioration of stability in the refugee camps as a result of the potential security vacuum.
The fighting between the rebels and Chadian troops will likely remain outside of the capital in the near-term. However, ongoing fighting and continued cooperation between rebel groups could lead to attempts by rebel forces to capture the capital, N’Djamena, as seen previously in April 2006.