Highlights
• FBI advisory warned of potential attack on Fort Huachuca by Iraqi and Afghan terrorists smuggled into the country from Mexico
• Mexican source who provided the information is of “uncertain reliability”
• Terrorist infiltration across the southern border remains a threat to the homeland
Over the past week, several media reports have warned that Islamic radicals from Iraq and Afghanistan were planning an attack on Fort Huachuca in Arizona, which is home to a US intelligence-training center for all branches of the military.
According to the reports, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) issued an advisory in May 2007, citing various sources and sub-sources, indicating that possibly 60 Afghan and Iraqi extremists were planning to be smuggled into the US through underground tunnels from Mexico, with the assistance of the country’s powerful drug cartels. At the time of the advisory, officials warned that some of the operatives were potentially already in the US, and hiding on an “unidentified Indian reservation” in Arizona. The report also states that weapons to be used during the attack are possibly in the country, to include two Milan surface-to-surface anti-tank missiles, several Soviet made surface-to-air missiles, and grenade launchers.
According to an official at Fort Huachuca, the base was notified of the threat in May and has taken precautionary measures to increase security in order to protect the 12,000 individuals who work at the site.
FBI officials have indicated that there is no information to state that this is a credible threat, however have urged individuals to remain vigilant.
Reliability of Sources Questioned
Media reports have indicated that the FBI advisory was based on sources from the Drug Enforcement Administration, specifically Mexican nationals connected to “sub-sources” who are members of the country’s drug cartels. The advisory states that the “sub-source” who warned of the threat was a member of the Zetas, or former Mexican Special Forces whose services have been utilized by the powerful Gulf cartel (Previous Report). Officials reportedly confirmed the identity of the sub-source, however indicated that the individual was of “uncertain reliability.”
Notably, the sub-source stated that the drug lords who were assisting the Iraqis and Afghans were from the Sinaloa cartel, a main rival to the Gulf cartel. This has led US officials to question whether the information from the sub-source was an attempt to force the US military to take action against their rival- the Sinaloa cartel.
Threat from the Southern Border
While the credibility of the recent warning remains uncertain, the report highlights the possibility of terrorist infiltrating via the southern border with Mexico.
According to the advisory, each Iraqi or Afghan paid the cartels US$20,000, or its equivalent in weapons, for assistance in crossing into the US (specifically through underground tunnels) with their weaponry.
As reported previously, US officials have noted an increase in the number of underground tunnels discovered under the country’s southern border with Mexico, particularly since the September 11th attacks. Since that time, at least 40 tunnels have been discovered that connect Mexico to either California or Arizona. Importantly, despite attempts by officials to curtail the use of these tunnels by criminal organizations, drug cartels and smuggling rings have continued to exploit this method of entry into the US, and even constructed new tunnels (Previous Report).
Further, recent reports have indicated that there is increasing cooperation between Mexican drug cartels and illegal alien smuggling rings. The smuggling networks are frequently paying fees to the cartels in order to use “safe” routes of entry into the US. Additionally, the cartels are increasingly using diversionary tactics to conceal their drug loads, such as assisting in smuggling large numbers of illegal aliens into the US in order to divert attention away from other routes that they plan to use to bring cargo into the country (Previous Report).
Outlook
While US officials have maintained that the credibility of the threat to Fort Huachuca is questionable, terrorist infiltration across the southern border remains a serious concern to the homeland. We believe that there is a possibility that extremists will continue to look for methods to exploit the country’s border with Mexico in order to smuggle operatives or weapons into the US, indicating the need to address the vulnerabilities that remain in the border system.
Further, it is also likely that extremists will continue to plot attacks targeting US military infrastructure and personnel, both in the homeland and overseas, as seen in the May 2007 disrupted plot to attack the Fort Dix army base in New Jersey (Previous Report). Such sites will remain attractive targets to extremists in the long-term.
