Highlights
• Sharif’s return to Pakistan further complicates the political situation in Pakistan
• Although Sharif and Bhutto both registered to run for prime minister, they continue to threaten a boycott of the upcoming parliamentary election.
• Any power-sharing deal between Musharraf and Sharif is highly unlikely
The situation in Pakistan became more complicated when former premier Nawaz Sharif returned to the country on November 25, 2007. The former Prime Minister (PM) adds a new twist to the political chess game that has recently plagued Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif was ousted by President Pervez Musharraf in a bloodless coup in 1999 and was forced into exile after being found guilty of corruption. According to officials within the Pakistani government, Sharif was allowed back into the country because he and Musharraf reached an apparent “understanding.” However, if an understanding was actually reached between Musharraf and Sharif, it is unlikely to last too long as both individuals have a mutual distrust and dislike for one another.
The Possible Boycott
On November 26, 2007, Sharif registered to run in Pakistan’s parliamentary elections that will be held on January 8, 2008. This comes at a time when President Pervez Musharraf has promised to step down as army chief and be sworn in as a civilian leader.
Upon Sharif’s return, he denounced Musharraf as a military dictator and claimed he was prepared to lead street protests if his demands for Musharraf to lift emergency rule and reinstate the Supreme Court were not met. However, according to an army spokesman, Musharraf will step down from his role as army chief before November 29, 2007, the day he will be taking the oath of office.
Sharif has announced that opposition parties will gather on November 29, 2007, to decide whether or not to boycott the parliamentary elections. According to the Associated Press, when asked if Sharif would boycott the elections, he was quoted as saying, “I have submitted my papers, let’s see where we end up.”
If Sharif takes part in the January 8 elections and wins, he is unlikely to lead any government under Pervez Musharraf. Although Musharraf most likely allowed Sharif to return in an effort to add legitimacy to his own re-election bid, Musharraf and Sharif have a strong dislike for one another and will likely have a difficult time working together. Analyzing the harsh rhetoric coming from Sharif upon his return reinforces the notion that a power-sharing government including both Musharraf and Sharif is highly unlikely.
The Sharif Effect
Nawaz Sharif’s surprise return to Pakistan poses a major threat to already embattled Musharraf. The Pakistani President is under immense pressure from the West and domestic opponents, who are demanding an end to emergency law, a return to democracy, and the resignation of Musharraf as head of the army. While the participation of Nawaz Sharif in the parliamentary elections may initially give the elections some legitimacy, Sharif’s return will likely add further pressure to Musharraf and complicate the political situation in Pakistan in the long-term.
Sharif, who heads the Muslim League-Nawaz political party, is still undecided on whether or not to contest the upcoming elections. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who heads the Pakistan People’s Party, also has yet to decide if she will protest the January 8, 2008 election. A Bhutto or Sharif boycott of the elections would strongly affect the legitimacy of the election as both individuals command large and influential political parties.
However, Pakistan’s attorney general Malik Qayyum, stated that Sharif could be barred from standing in the polls. “As the election law stands today, it is highly doubtful that Nawaz Sharif can contest elections,” Qayyum was quoted as saying to the Times of India. Under Pakistan’s current laws, Sharif is barred because he was sentenced to life imprisonment before he went into exile in 2000. He was convicted on charges of corruption and attempting to bar Musharraf’s return to Pakistan from a foreign trip in 1999. If Sharif is barred from the election, he is likely to use this as further ammunition to label Musharraf as a dictator and authoritarian leader.
Looking Ahead
Sharif is currently making several demands that are unlikely to be met by Musharraf, including lifting emergency law immediately and reinstating the Supreme Court judges that were purged under the emergency law implemented on November 3, 2007.
If Sharif does agree to run for prime minister, the question emerges whether or not Sharif and Bhutto can work together to defeat Musharraf supporters and wrestle control away from him in parliament. Bhutto and Sharif have very little in common other than their mutual dislike of Musharraf. If both can find common ground, a Sharif-Bhutto team would combine the forces of the two largest political parties in Pakistan and pose a major problem to President Musharraf as he attempts to stay in power. However, failure to form an opposition alliance could split the opposition vote and end up helping Musharraf.
The political situation in Pakistan largely remains uncertain as another controversial figure enters the scene. If Musharraf resigns from army chief this week, it would be seen as a positive step by the West and even by Benazir Bhutto. However, Sharif is certain to be unsatisfied and make further demands that are unlikely to be met by President Musharraf. One thing is certain, Sharif is barred under current Pakistani law to run for political office and it is unlikely that Musharraf will step in and make any attempt to change that.