Highlights
– North Korea agrees to a deal in six-party talks
– South Korea claims Pyongyang remains a military threat
– Significant progress has been made in dismantling nuclear facilities
A rare burst of diplomatic activity by isolated North Korea is grabbing international attention, with optimism growing that the communist country may finally abandon its nuclear weapons program and open-up to reforms. There have been multiple delays in the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, even to the point where it looked as if Pyongyang would never be convinced to shut its weapons programs down.
However, in the past couple of months, significant progress has been made with the North Koreans. According to Sung Kim, who is leading the team of US experts in Pyongyang, the team has made a “good start” to the process of dismantling the country’s main nuclear facility.
The Latest Agreement
North Korean officials are hoping that the United States will lift sanctions against the communist state in response to Pyongyang’s disclosure of its nuclear activities before the end of the year. A deal struck by the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, and Russia requires Pyongyang to disable its nuclear facilities in exchange for aid, equaling one million tons of heavy fuel oil, and an end to isolation.
Thus far, Sung Kim claims North Korea has been very cooperative and hopes to achieve the last phase of disablement by December 31, 2007. The team led by Sung Kim will be working two or three-week rotations for about two months, and US experts are expecting to remove 8,000 fuel rods from the Yongbyon nuclear facility closing the reactor for a least one year.
According to US government officials, if North Korea gives complete declaration of its nuclear program by the end of the year as promised, the US will work with the communist state on removing it from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, as well as lifting sanctions.
Military Threat Posed by the North
According to Kim Jang Soo, South Korea’s defense minister, the military threat posed by North Korea has not diminished despite steps taken by Pyongyang to begin dismantling nuclear facilities. The statement by Kim Jang Soo resembles statements by US Defense Department personnel, who stated that there is no clear intelligence indicating that North Korea has halted its pursuit of “asymmetrical weapons.”
North Korea’s conventional and nuclear capabilities are the “focal point” of the alliance between South Korea and the US. Both countries, as well as Japan, remain concerned over North Korea’s nuclear activities and have lobbied for Pyongyang to give up its program for some time. North Korea has about one million people in its army and thousands of short-to-medium range missiles aimed at Seoul. An agreement with Pyongyang over its nuclear program is seen as vital step for Asian stability.
However, as much as the US, South Korea, and Japan want to reach an agreement with the North, they are weary of a repeat of what happened in 1994. On October 21, 1994, the US signed an agreement with North Korea with the objective of freezing and eventually replacing Pyongyang’s nuclear power plant program with more nuclear proliferation resistance light water reactors. During this time, North Korea had a covert nuclear program and violated its part of the agreement. Because of this, the US, as well as Japan and South Korea, remain guarded of the promises made by Kim Jong Il, as well as Pyongyang’s most recent diplomatic activity.
A Diplomatic Campaign
In recent months, Kim Yong-Il, North Korea’s top economic policymaker has traveled to several countries throughout Asia. During a five-day trip to Vietnam, Kim visited several industrial and tourist sites, as well as meeting with officials from the Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment. According to Yazhou Zhoukan, a Hong Kong-based Chinese weekly news magazine, North Korea’s Kim Jong Il had expressed his interest in adopting the Vietnamese model of reform and openness.
Kim Yong-Il has also recently traveled to Malaysia, Cambodia, and Laos, where the primary focus was boosting trade and investment. According to Kim Yong-hyun, a professor at Dongguk University in Seoul, North Korea’s diplomatic activity in recent months is aimed at fostering stable external relations, attracting foreign investment and tourism, and eventually boosting normalization of ties with the US.
However, other analysts like Jiang Lian-gui, who teaches political science at a Chinese Communist Party-run institution, claims North Korea’s most recent diplomatic activity is attributed to avoiding international sanctions and is actually part of a larger nuclear possession strategy.
Future Outlook
The denuclearization of the Korean peninsula has been a US goal for decades. In October 2006, when North Korea announced it had conducted its first nuclear test, the international community reacted swiftly and imposed sanctions on Pyongyang.
There has been much debate regarding the future of North Korea. Some US officials have opposed the latest diplomatic efforts in the six-party talks and instead advocate further sanctions and isolation of Pyongyang. Hardliners argue that North Korea cannot be trusted and will betray any agreement as they did in 1994.
Thus far, diplomacy has been the chosen path for the international community in dealing with North Korea. Significant progress has been made and it is likely that North Korea will continue its cooperation in the near-term. However, American officials are expected to remain guarded regarding promises and pledges coming from North Korea.
