Highlights
– Lebanese presidential elections were postponed for the third time until November 21, 2007, with the November 24th deadline fast approaching
– Though efforts to reach consensus appear unsuccessful, the most likely compromise candidate is Riad Salemeh
– If a compromise candidate is not agreed upon, November 25th will either find Lebanon with a March 14 president elected by simple majority; resulting in the formation of a rival government or under the temporary leadership of Lebanese Army Commander General Michel Suleiman, a scenario deemed unacceptable by many members of the March 14 Coalition
With the November 24, 2007, constitutional deadline approaching, the Lebanese Presidential election was postponed this past weekend until November 21st. Announced following the conclusion of a November 9th meeting between Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri and March 14 Coalition leader Saad Hariri, the postponement of the originally scheduled November 12, 2007 parliamentary session further demonstrates both the tension and urgency surrounding the quest to agree on a compromise candidate.
Despite the flurry of ministerial meetings and press statements, however, Lebanese politicians indicated that the government and the opposition remain far from reaching a compromise.
Origins of the Political Divide
The political divide between pro-Syria and anti-Syria parliamentarians is rooted in years of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs, leading to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s 2004 decision to extend Lebanese President Emile Lahoud’s six year presidential term for an additional three years, and violating the Lebanese constitution. The pro-Syrian president’s term extension was the catalyst for former Prime Minister Rafiik Hariri’s drift toward joining the anti-Syrian camp, which eventually led to his February 14, 2005 assassination .
The former Prime Minister’s (PM) assassination was the jump off point for anti-Syrian/Lahoud demonstrations in Beirut that resulted in the anti-Syrian March 14 Coalition’s electoral victory that secured the anti-Syrian bloc a majority in the parliament. However, a spree of assassinations of loyalist ministers cut short the March 14 Coalition government’s celebrations. Since Rafiik Hariri’s assassination, eight prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese figures have been assassinated. (Previous Report, Previous Report, Previous Report). The targeted assassination of five anti-Syrian politicians—George Hawi , Gibran Tueni , Pierre Gemayel (Source), Walid Eido , and Antoine Ghanem , is widely held as an attempt to rob the March 14 Coalition of its slim parliamentary majority—68 of 127 seats.
Today, the political divide is rooted in the majority’s insistence on the full implementation of UN Resolutions 1559 and 1757, which jointly call for full Syrian withdraw from Lebanon, the disarmament of militias, and the establishment of an international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiik Hariri.
Constitutional Debate
The debate among parliamentarians over Lebanese electoral law focuses on Articles 34, 49(2) and 73 of the Lebanese Constitution.
• Article 34: “The Chamber is not validly constituted unless the majority of the total membership is present. Decisions are to be taken by a majority vote.”
• Article 49(2): “The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient.”
• Article 73: Directs the Speaker of the House to call parliament to session one to two months prior to conclusion of the president’s term in office. If parliament does not meet this requirement, it should meet “of its own accord on the tenth day preceding the expiration of the President’s term of office.”
The opposition bloc is currently boycotting parliament in order to avoid establishing a two-thirds quorum; thereby blocking the loyalist from electing a president by simple majority. The March 14 Coalition argues that, if a quorum is not reached prior to the expiration of President Lahoud’s term, a session will automatically be convened in the opposition’s absence and it will elect its own president. In response, President Lahoud threatened to deem the government unconstitutional and establish a rival, parallel government (Previous Report).
Speaker Nabih Berri’s Olive Branch
In his August 31, 2007 statement, Speaker Berri coupled the opposition’s compromise with a call for the March 14 Coalition to accept the election of a president with a two-thirds quorum. Initially leery that the opposition’s proposal to work toward consensus was simply an attempt to mandate the election of General Michel Aoun, the March 14 Coalition actively participated in negotiations over the past months.
The difficulty arises in selecting a candidate that is considered adequately neutral by both parties. Top compromise candidate contenders include: Riad Salemeh—Governor of the Central Bank, Jean Obeid—former foreign minister, ministers of parliament Robert Ghanem and Boutros Harb, and former ministers of parliament Fares Boueiz and Pierre Dakkash. Meanwhile, non-compromise preferences are Nassib Lahoud (March 14) and General Michel Aoun (Free Patriotic Movement leader/opposition). If a compromise candidate is not elected, Lebanese Army Commander General Michel Suleiman is presented as a possible stand-in until consensus can be reached.
A Way Forward
Despite the flurry of meetings and statements by all sides, the parliamentarians have yet to reach a consensus. Talks of potential compromise intermingle with threats on the front page of Lebanese newspapers. Reports of meetings between March 14 leader Saad Hariri and General Aoun are reported alongside declarations by General Aoun that he is the only acceptable candidate. Meanwhile, the reported rearming of sectarian militias mixed with the recent doubling of small arms sales ignite fears that Lebanon is on the verge of a second civil war.
On the brink of potential disaster, the Lebanese people hope with the little faith they have left that a compromise candidate will be elected prior to the November 24, 2007 deadline. Nonetheless, Beirut is under high security alert until the situation is resolved, with a military security zone extending from Nijmeh Square and the opposition sit-in to the Phoenicia Intercontinental Hotel. Currently, fears remain that Syria will attempt to assassinate additional majority members prior to the election deadline; however, due to these strict security measures, it is unlikely such an event will occur.
It is also unlikely that a rumored possible realignment by General Aoun to ally with the majority will occur prior to the election. General Aoun sees himself as the only candidate favored by the majority of Lebanese Christians. He will, therefore, not accept the appointment of another presidential candidate, nor will the March 14 Coalition back him as President Lahoud’s successor. The only hope for a compromise candidate lies in an agreement between the March 14 Coalition and Hizballah. Hizballah appears less committed to the election of General Aoun than General Aoun purports, but is unwilling to accept a candidate that insists on its disarmament.
The most likely compromise candidate is Governor of Lebanese Central Bank Riad Salemeh. He is a technocrat and one of the few political personalities in Lebanon with a clean reputation.
However, the likelihood of parliament electing a compromise candidate remains slim. Most likely, consensus will not be reached and the March 14 Coalition will, in the absence of quorum, call parliament to session and elect a president by simple majority.
If this occurs, the opposition will either form a rival government or insist that Lebanese Army Commander General Michel Suleiman be appointed as an interim president; either of which will leave the Lebanese political system in a precarious position.
