Highlights
– Cuba’s current state
– UN condemnation of the US embargo
– No democratic governance in sight for Cuba
The Fidel Castro era in Cuba is nearing an end. Whether it is next month, one year from now, or longer, Cuba will soon be mourning one Communist leader and following a new Communist leader, Fidel’s brother Raul. Many theories have arisen concerning what a post-Fidel Cuba will be like in the future—politically, economically, and socially.
As we previously reported, change is inevitable, but at a slow pace and certainly not until Fidel’s death. There is a certain likelihood that the ongoing transition of power from Fidel to his brother Raul will bring about no change at all at least in the near-term. Raul Castro was the country’s defense minister during the Fidel Castro era and was responsible for multiple deaths and political imprisonments. Because of these prior actions, United Nations (UN) condemnations and individual state mandates directing the removal of the current US embargo should be fully considered, but ignored in the near to mid-term.
The UN Vote
On October 28, 2007, one week after US President George Bush addressed his constituents and encouraged Cubans both home and abroad to continue their fight for democracy in Cuba, the United Nations voted to condemn the longstanding US embargo of Cuba. In doing so, the UN disagreed with the US isolationist policy of Cuba, and for the sixteenth year in a row, declared there must be a better way to instill democracy in the ailing nation.
The US considers Cuba a violator of human rights, a dictatorship and a state sponsor of terrorism. The US currently restricts certain business prospects in Iran, Syria, and North Korea for the same reason. Because of this, the US government imposes four main sets of sanctions:
• A ban on arms-related exports and sales
• Controls over exports of dual-use items, requiring 30-day Congressional notification for goods or services that could significantly enhance the country’s military capability or ability to support terrorism
• Prohibitions on economic assistance
• Imposition of miscellaneous financial and other restrictions
Cuba’s Role
Cuba continues to oppose the US-led Coalition prosecuting the global war on terror and has publicly condemned various US policies and actions. To date, the Cuban Government has taken no action against al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups. To the contrary, allegedly Cuba finances some terrorist organizations and provides a safe haven for terrorists to train and live, including members of ETA, FARC, and ELN. Additionally, Cuba is known to be harboring numerous US fugitives and continues to be non-responsive to extradition requests while at the same time demands the return of five of its agents convicted of espionage in the US.
Additionally, in 2001 Fidel Castro met with Syrian and Iranian leaders on a diplomatic tour to the Middle East and declared that together they could, “bring the United States to its knees.” It was in the last few years that Cuba solidified its position as an ally to staunch anti-US Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez while continuing to pursue diplomatic and economic relationships with China, Russia, and North Korea. As such, less than a 100 miles from Florida’s coast remains a nation that is run by a regime that is unwaveringly anti-American, anti-Democracy, and anti-freedom.
The Economic Reality
The economic opportunities in Cuba are plentiful, but the US remains steadfast in not allowing full-fledged economic investment, which could increase the ability of Cuba’s authoritarian regime to gain resources it could potentially use against the US. US measures have cost the island estimated loses amounting to US $89 billion; of which much would likely have been used not to aid Cuba’s poor, but to assist the leading regime in anti-US initiatives. Any profits from economic development while the current regime is in power go directly to the government and are scarcely seen by the Cuban people. The 2007 Index of Economic Freedom Report ranks Cuba 156 out of 157 nations surveyed.
The US has provided aid to the Cuban populace over the years, as the US has been the top source of food and farm products sent to Cuba. American food and farm products provided to Cuba have totaled US$60 million from the state of Nebraska alone since 2005. The US has also agreed to give Cubans computers and Internet access; however, the Internet remains outlawed in most areas of the island.
When the Cuban government provides additional freedoms to its people allowing democratic, free elections, then the US should expand its economic investment there. Until then, doing business with Cuba or lifting the restrictions currently imposed is to a prudent move, politically, economically or socially.
A Look Forward
It is true that the embargo has not brought about regime change and democratic reforms in Cuba.
However, ending sanctions could strengthen the authoritarian regime and degrade the welfare of the Cuban people. In the end, the UN should be demanding that Cuba halt all human rights violations, open up free elections, and introduce economic and social reforms on the island.
The Cuban state is unlikely to experience any form of democratic governance in the near-term. We anticipate a continuation of authoritarian control under Raul Castro, backed by his Cuban military loyalties and thus the further oppression of the Cuban people.
