Highlights
– Fighting between Indian security forces and Maoist rebels has escalated in recent months
– Maoist violence prevents several states in eastern India from developing
– We anticipate further attacks in eastern India in the near to mid term
In the shadow of India’s economic success and information technology boom, Maoist insurgents continue to create instability in parts of eastern India. The Maoist insurgents, also known as Naxalites, operate in 13 of India’s 29 states. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh claims the Maoists are the, “single greatest security challenge ever faced by our country.”
Fighting between Indian security forces and Maoist guerrillas has escalated in recent months in several of India’s eastern states. The attacks were concentrated in less developed states, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Maoist militants are claiming to fight for the rights of poor peasants and landless laborers.
New Strategy
According to the World Politics Review, India’s Maoist insurgents have shifted their strategy from traditional hit-and-run guerilla attacks to coordinated attacks. Varavara Rao, a pro-Maoist spokesman, claims that the larger, less-frequent attacks are a result of recent setbacks in various Indian states.
According to Rao, evidence of this shift in strategy could be seen in several strikes against Indian security forces, including an attack in Chhattisgarh in March 2007 that resulted in the death of at least 50 police, and triggered a landmine explosion on November 2nd near a police station in Chhattisgarh killing 15 policemen.
According to Muppala Lakshman Rao, the general secretary of the Communist Party of India-Maoist, the strategic shift took place at the beginning of 2007 at the Maoist party’s unity conference near the border region of Jharkhand and Bihar. Regarding the strategic shift in tactics, Lakshman Rao was quoted as saying, “Now the time has come to identify specific targets, hit them precisely and with impunity.”
Another high profile attack came last month when Maoists targeted former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Janardhana Reddy’s convoy with a landmine. Although Janardhana Reddy survived, the same cannot be said about a son of a former Jharkhand chief minister who was killed, along with 17 others in an ambush on October 27, 2007. The multiple landmine attacks perpetrated by the Naxalites resembles attacks committed against coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, suggesting the Maoist rebels may be adopting tactics popular with Iraqi and Taliban insurgents.
Countering the Maoist Threat
According to a report by the Intelligence Bureau of India’s Union Home Ministry, Maoist-related violence plummeted last year. The report said, “The number of incidents declined by over 65 percent and the killings by 78 percent. The violent activities by other Naxalite groups also registered a sharp decline.”
In the past two years, Indian state security forces have launched an aggressive counter-insurgency campaign against Maoists in several Indian states, but most aggressively in the state of Andhra Pradesh. At the heart of the campaign is increased patrolling in areas that are traditionally refuge points for Maoist guerrillas.
The crackdown in Andhra Pradesh has killed hundreds of guerrillas and led to the arrests of several top officials. However, according to a Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management, the Maoists have simply regrouped in the dense forest belt in neighboring Chhattisgarh. The Maoists have shifted the fight to an area less well managed by India security. The inability for India to administer its territories adds to the instability of eastern India and allows Maoists to operate with relative ease.
The Indian government is aware that the gains made in Andhra Pradesh may be contributing to the influx of Maoist activity in the Chhattisgarh state. To counter the threat, intelligence is being shared by the state agencies to coordinate tactics. However, because Chhattisgarh is poorly administered, the same tactics that worked in Andhra Pradesh are unlikely to have the same results in Chhattisgarh state.
Future Outlook
Indian counterinsurgency operations in the Andhra Pradesh state have been successful. However, the Maoists have been able to escape and regroup in several other states, particularly Chhattisgarh. This poses a severe problem for the Indian government because it involves Indian security forces having to chase Maoist guerrillas deep into rebel-held territories.
The ability of the Maoists to launch several large-scale attacks in 2007 shows that the group continues to a pose a serious threat to India. As attacks have been concentrated in the east, there is always the fear that the insurgency will spread to major cities in India. There has been success in Andhra Pradesh, but the Indian government is far from defeating the Maoist movement. While the Naxalites aren’t expected to overthrow the central government any time soon, they do however cause severe instability in west India and prevent the region from developing.
The ongoing Naxalite unrest will continue to drain resources away from the Indian economy and Indian security activities on the Pakistan border.
