Highlights
– Alvaro Colom was elected Guatemala’s next President in special run-off election conducted November 4, 2007
– Colom’s victory provides the first leftist President since the end of Guatemala’s civil war in 1996
– Poverty, crime and violence will be the most pressing issues for Colom, who is not expected to make much initial impact on these issues when taking office in January 2008
In a presidential run-off election conducted November 4, 2007, social-democrat candidate Alvaro Colom defeated retired general Otto Perez Molina to be elected Guatemala’s next president. The election, which had a low voter turn out, was necessary as neither candidate had been able to earn a simple majority during a previous election attempt in September 2007 (Previous Report). Colom’s win came by a slim 5.5 percent point lead, and was largely attributed to his appeal amongst Guatemala’s rural residents, where most are living in sub-standard conditions.
Colom’s election platform primarily addressed economic and social reforms as a means to end rampant crime and violence. As such, Colom promised to improve health care and schools for the poor, as well as slash poverty levels by 20 percent during his four year term, which begins in January 2008.
However, we believe that an administration led by Colom will have little immediate impact on the ongoing violence and corruption. Time needed to generate social reform will not translate to immediate impact on the widespread crime and institutional nepotism.
Economic Conditions
Recent official figures indicate that half of Guatemala’s 13 million residents live in poverty, though some non-government organizations put the figure closer to 80 percent. Despite this number, Guatemala is currently undergoing an economic upturn as the economy is on track to grow at over five percent this year, driven mainly by sugar and fruit exports. Guatemala’s free trade deal with the US will also provide over a 50 percent rise in foreign direct investment in 2007.
As a former deputy economy minister, Colom has the vision to continue many of the economic strides underway. After being declared the presidential winner, Colom stated, “I plan to convert Guatemala into a social-democratic country with a Mayan face.” However, due to the widespread poverty, focus on maintaining pricing for goods and services will be an ongoing issue for Colom. As such, Colom has vowed to negotiate with companies to freeze or cut prices on staple products like cooking gas, flour, meat and poultry.
Corruption and Crime Issues
Colom aggressively campaigned on a platform of social reform as a means to counter Guatemala’s long-standing crime and violence. Of note, Colom has promised to address Guatemala’s corrupt police force, many of which have often been linked to murders and kidnappings and have been suspected of supporting Guatemala’s violent drug trafficking organizations.
Throughout his campaign, Colom acknowledged that past governments have not aggressively addressed organized crime. To respond to this growing problem, he has proposed invoking temporary emergency powers on a limited basis to deter drug trafficking groups. Colom has stated that he will use military troops to attack drug gangs that control large parts of rural Guatemala, especially the remote region near the Mexican border, where smuggling groups often use hidden airstrips as a transit point for drugs destined for the US.
However, Colom has hardly been immune to links to drug trafficking groups, as many members of his political party, National Unity for Hope Party (UNE) were expelled from the party due to their links to the illegal drug trafficking trade. During the campaign, Colom’s opponent, General Perez Molina also accused Colom of ties to both gangs and to drug traffickers. Any such future allegations of corruption will impact Colom’s ability to enact effective administration in the years to come.
Tough Road Ahead
Despite an improving economic outlook, Colom will have many challenges ahead in implementing his aggressive platform. We believe Colom will have little immediate impact in addressing widespread crime and corruption that has festered for many years. Even if he ambitiously targets social reforms necessary to promote economic growth, continued security and corruption concerns will prevent Colom from making much progress in the near to mid-term.
