Highlights
– Protestors demonstrate against Chavez’s proposed constitutional
amendments on October 23 in Caracas
– Chavez proposes a suppression of due process
– Venezuelan’s highly divided over the proposed amendments
On October 23, 2007, violence broke out between anti-Chavez government protestors and pro-Chavez supporters at a protest in Caracas against Hugo Chavez’s latest proposed constitutional reforms. Riot police armed with tear gas added to the violence. The parliamentary discussion concerning the President Chavez’ proposed amendments began on October 17, 2007, and will be completed in the near-term.
Most notably, the new constitution reforms include an amendment that would allow the president to arrest citizens without charges during a state of emergency. Other amendments include removing term limits for the president, changing the presidential term to seven years, increasing the president’s control over the central bank, and restricting the public’s access to information during an emergency.
Following the debate and vote in parliament, the amendments passed will be put to a referendum in December 2007. Because all members of parliament are supporters of President Chavez, the amendments will likely pass. However, even with overwhelming support, some members have expressed their discontent with the new amendments. When the people vote in December 2007, it is also believed that the referendum will be approved, as the majority favors Chavez and his ideals.
With passage of these amendments, Chavez will continue moving towards a completely authoritarian regime. As the December vote approaches, opposition groups, as on October 23rd, will continue their campaign against the proposed reforms and referendum. As such, more protests and demonstrations are highly likely in the coming months, culminating with larger rallies and acts of dissidence as the country nears the referendum in December.
Long-Term Forecast
Though he vehemently denies seeking indefinite power, President Chavez has expressed interest in staying in the presidency until at least 2027 and perhaps beyond if his “Bolivarian Revolution” is not completed by then.
Faced with a long-term presidency and new authority, the outlook for Venezuela is concerning. Human Rights Watch has expressed concern over Chavez’ plans to stay in office indefinitely and to detain citizens without charges.
Because Venezuela’s constitution permits national emergencies to be declared for up to 60 days, the granting of police powers would have a great impact. Additionally, under the new amendments, such a state of emergency could be maintained by presidential order as long as the conditions that caused the emergency persist. President Chavez has likely proposed this new measure in hopes of preventing another coup (similar to 2002) that would oust him from power. If threatening protests did occur, under the new constitution, Chavez could simply detain the protesting citizens, suppressing their right to a fair trial.
President Chavez also continues to be a heavy influence and potential threat to stability of Latin America. If enhanced powers are granted to Chavez through the changes to the Constitution, individual freedoms and rights in Bolivia, Ecuador, and elsewhere could also be affected. Chavez’s influence in the region is strong and his reforms could be used as precedent for other leaders who are currently in a state of reforming their nations.
The Coming Months
Though his influence and popularity are strong both in and outside of Venezuela, President Chavez is receiving some push back against the latest proposed reforms. International Press associations are speaking out, as are human rights organizations and foreign governments. Additionally, the Venezuelan public, while overall supportive of Chavez, is somewhat divided on the two main proposed reforms (the declaration of national emergencies and suspension of due process). Those divisions extend all the way to the parties in the ruling coalition. The Communist Party of Venezuela, Patria para Todos (Homeland for All) and Podemos (We Can) have expressed disapproval and have called for the referendum to be postponed so that the Venezuelan people can learn more about the proposed amendments.
If the amendments are passed through parliament and referendum, opposition leaders will have little power to protest and demonstrate against Chavez. Therefore, these next months may be seen as one of the last occasions when protests can successfully contest Chavez.
As such, we believe the coming months will experience continued debate and protests in Venezuela. The December referendum, as of now, looks like it will be conducted as planned. Larger, potentially violent protests are expected immediately before and during the referendum. In addition, opposition leaders are contemplating an all-out boycott of the referendum.