Highlights
– The US is trying to assuage Russian concerns over missile shield in Europe
– The US is willing to link other foreign policy disputes to this issue
– Russia is playing foreign policy hardball with the US on the proposed system
Once again the issue of a proposed US missile shield with components deployed in Europe is causing friction between the United States and Russia, with Europe caught in the middle. The US has been trying to establish this system for some time and is currently negotiating with Poland to build interceptor sites within their borders and with the Czech Republic to build a radar-tracking site in their territory.
The US justification for this system is to protect against missiles from rogue states such as Iran. Russia sees the situation very differently—believing that the US threat justification has not been substantiated, and that such a system could be used against Russian strategic interests. As a result there has been a great deal of suspicion and bellicose statements from Russia including threats to withdraw from arms control treaties (Previous Report), modernize Russia’s own strategic assets and potentially point Russian missiles at Europe.
Progress between the US and Russia over this issue seemed stymied until two major proposals were made in July 2007 and during the past week.
Counter Proposal
In July 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a counter-proposal to incorporate radar systems based in Azerbaijan as part of a monitoring system. This idea was greeted as “interesting” by the US, however, it only served to confuse the issue, and major progress between the US and Russia failed to materialize. As a result, the Russian government remained intractable in its opposition to the program.
The dispute over the missile defense issue comes at a time when US and Russian relations are at an all-time low, and both states are in disagreement over numerous foreign and domestic affairs issues such as the War in Iraq, containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the future of Kosovo and the erosion of democratic rights in Russia under the Putin regime. Russia is also acting as a counter to US foreign policy ambitions in some circumstances, an eerie throwback to the Cold War days. Thus, in the most recent chapter of the missile shield saga, the US has offered some major concessions. At this time, Russia has rejected these new concessions, however ongoing discussions seem likely in the near to mid-term.
New Concessions
The latest concessions were unveiled informally during a recent visit to Moscow by the US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. It was formally presented to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ambassadors and Russian security officials shortly after. It is clear that the US also wants NATO to endorse the plan. The Secretary General of NATO did support the recent US initiative and expressed the hope that Russia would accept it. Although the new initiative is not fully developed the major components Include:
• The anti-missile defense system would be deployed on the basis of threat. The US and Russia could jointly decide the nature of the threat. This means that the system might not be activated until Iranian missiles become a confirmed threat. A confirmed threat would be evidence indicating Iran is testing its own missiles.
• The Russian radar system in Azerbaijan could be linked to the US system in Europe through a sharing of data, thereby expanding capability.
• Russia could monitor what the US is doing in Poland and the Czech Republic perhaps through liaison officers, making the sites more transparent through an exchange of observers.
Foreign Policy Linkages and Concessions
The new initiative is also linked to other pertinent foreign policy issues such as the Conventional Forces Treaty in Europe (CFE) and the future status of Kosovo. The exact nature of how this new initiative would be linked to these other foreign policy issues was not revealed. Previously, the US refused to decouple these particular foreign policy issues. It is certainly possible that with these new concessions, the US is also trying to adopt a more holistic approach to engage Russia.
The US had hoped to conclude negotiations with the countries hosting the components of the missile system by the end of the year, but this may be too optimistic. The Czech Prime Minister has stated that Russian soldiers would not be allowed on Czech territory although perhaps “inspectors” may be allowed.
In addition, the new Polish Prime Minister has publicly stated that his administration may be less welcoming than the previous one in accepting the interceptor sites on Polish territory. Thus there may be difficulties in the actual implementation of the system.
Outlook
The new US conciliatory posture may have backfired as Russia has initially rejected the new initiative. The Russian Defense Minister stated that they could not agree to what was currently offered and was maintaining its current demands. However, the Russian government did leave room for further talks by noting that the US is transforming its viewpoints with a better understanding of the issues, which they considered a welcome development.
Regarding the future of the missile shield, it is likely that Russia rejected this proposal in order to gain further concessions down the road. At the same time, the US may have been offering these concessions as evidence to its European and NATO partners that it has reasonably tried to engage Russia on this issue without the intention of starting a new arms race.
The US has indicated that the missile shield program is important, and has sought funding to implement and deploy the project. As such,, it would not be surprising to see further negotiations take place or concessions made on this issue between Russia and the US.