Highlights
– While the complete extent of the damage is yet unknown, preliminary estimates have placed the financial costs of the California fires at well above US$1 billion
– Arson is an attractive method to extremists, particularly as neither significant training nor funding is required to execute such an attack
– The fires have highlighted how an arson-terrorist type attack could pose a significant risk to the homeland due to the large-scale impact on the region’s economy
One week after a string of fires began across southern California, US firefighters are beginning to make significant progress against the ongoing blazes. Yet, as the fires are slowly coming under control, a clear picture concerning the extent of the damage throughout the affected areas has begun to emerge.
According to the latest figures, the some 23 wildfires in the southern part of the state have destroyed over a half-million acres of land, burned approximately 1,800 homes, killed at least seven individuals, and wounded another 85 (including 61 firefighters).
Further complicating the current situation, US officials have confirmed that at least two of the massive wildfires were the work of arsonists. Specifically, one of the larger fires in Orange County, known as the “Santiago Fire,” was started by an experienced arsonist. Police have arrested at least five individuals in connection with various fires, and investigations are ongoing to identify and detain other suspects.
The widespread economic impact that will likely result from the California fires has clearly exhibited the significant risk that an arson-terrorist type attack poses to the US homeland, as they demonstrate the consequences that would ensue from this type of strike.
Economic Impact of the Fires
While the complete extent of the damage is yet unknown, preliminary estimates have placed the financial costs of the fire at well above US$1 billion. However, economists and insurance officials have estimated that the final figure will be significantly higher, likely around US$2 billion.
The fires have destroyed over half a million acres of public, residential, and agricultural land, and officials remain concerned that the damage will widely harm the region’s economy. Local budgets will likely be stretched due to the cost of emergency services, and economists have predicted that losses to the tourism and farm industries will not be fully recovered in a region that is already suffering from a downturn in the housing industry.
Fires Highlight Potential Threat to US
The California fires have highlighted how an arson-terrorist type attack could pose a significant risk to the homeland, as seen through the large-scale impact that the fires will likely have on the region’s economy.
– The summer fires in southern Greece have further highlighted the large effect that such an event can have on a local economy. Officials stated that the fires in Greece destroyed approximately 670,000 acres of land and over 4,500 homes, resulting in damages that will likely exceed 0.6 percent of the country’s GDP.
The wide-ranging economic impact that will likely result from large fires makes arson an attractive method to extremists, particularly as neither significant training or funding is required to execute such an attack.
– Environmental extremists, such as those belonging to the Earth Liberation Front (ELF) have long employed the tactic of arson to “inflict economic damage on those profiting from the destruction and exploitation of the natural environment.” ELF activists have been involved in a large number of these acts, to include several that have resulted in millions of dollars of property damage, such as the August 2003 arson of a housing complex in San Diego that caused financial losses of US$50 million and the October 1998 arson of a ski resort in Vail, Colorado that resulted in US$12 million in damages . ELF has produced several manuals that provide step-by-step instructions for training on how to build incendiary devices and carry out arson attacks that have been widely distributed throughout the environmental movement.
– In 2003, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) alerted law enforcement agencies that a detained al-Qaeda terrorist had talked about masterminding a plot to set a series of fires throughout the western US using timed devices in Colorado, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming. However, the alert also noted that investigators could not determine if the detainee was telling the truth, and that the individual’s comments were not specific and speculative.
Challenges Ahead
In addition to exhibiting the far-reaching economic impact of an event of this scale, the California fires have also highlighted the challenges that many local communities face in ensuring that they have adequate resources available to handle a major blaze.
– Prior to the start of the “Santiago Fire,” Orange County officials dispatched several crews to other fires in Los Angeles County and Malibu- a typical response under the state’s mutual aid agreements. However, as the “Santiago Fire” emerged, the county found that they did not have enough crews, some of which were also understaffed, to combat the flames. Further hampering relief efforts were high winds, which prevented most planes and helicopters from taking off.
Due to the potential for extremists to carry out an arson attack in the US, particularly in the western portion of the country, it is important to continue to devote resources to prepare for such an event, in an effort to prevent future disasters of this scale and reduce economic losses.
In the long-term, it is likely that environmental extremist groups will carry out the majority of arson attacks, specifically those that are capable of producing millions of dollars in property damage. While the possibility of an al-Qaeda linked arson attack cannot be discounted, it is more likely that an arson attack carried out by an Islamic extremist will be the work of a lone individual who was inspired to take this action based on the widespread media attention garnered by the recent fires.
