Highlights
-The cause of the deadly mall explosion in Manila is still undetermined
-An Islamist militant group thought to be inactive claimed responsibility
-Timing and location of blast indicate that the explosion is most likely related to terrorism, not an accident as police initially thought
On October 19, 2007, an explosion ripped through an upscale mall located in the financial district of Metro Manila, killing eleven people and injuring more than 100 . Authorities initially believed a gas leak triggered the blast; however, further investigations led police to suspect the explosion was a terrorist attack.
Although police have not found conclusive evidence about the cause of the explosion, the continued strength of several terrorist groups based in the Philippines remains an ongoing threat to the capital city and other areas throughout the Philippines.
We believe attacks targeting public areas may increase in the near to mid-term as Philippines based terrorist groups renew their capabilities.
Sabotage Likely
Experts investigating the blast at the Glorietta 2 Mall in Makati City, Metro Manila reported that an explosion could not have occurred without sabotage.
The national police chief was careful to emphasize that they have not yet concluded the source of the explosion because they are, ”looking for a needle in a haystack.” Nevertheless, he stated that there are several possibilities including a terror attack, an accidental explosion of a pipe supplying fuel to the mall’s generators or a methane leak from a septic tank in the basement.
A Philippine civil engineer, who has worked on large government projects said that stringent security and safety standards make it all but impossible for the chemicals stored in the building to explode on their own. However, no sign of bomb components, such as timing devices or power sources, have been found in the rubble.
RSM Claims Responsibility
On October 20, 2007, an alleged member of the Rajah Solaiman Movement (RSM), a small Muslim group with ties to the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) called a local radio station to claim responsibility for the mall explosion and demand the release of RSM leader Hilarion del Roasrio Santos, also known as Ahmed Santos.
Filipino police were quick to discredit RSM claims because they said RSM has been inactive for more than a year, after the arrest of twelve key members. Police added that the language in the statement does not fit with previous statements made by the group.
However, reports indicate that ASG recently received funding from an anonymous international donor after releasing a video in August 2007 asking for support (Previous Report). The increased funding will likely result in an increase of attacks by ASG militants in the near-term and may link ASG to the mall blast.
Security Outlook for Manila
In the aftermath of the explosion, security was increased throughout Manila. Troops were instructed to guard major checkpoints in major thoroughfares around the city and additional security was provided at all shopping malls, the light-rail system and other potential targets.
Although an attack by RSM or another ASG related group is likely, the current lack of conclusive evidence makes it difficult to determine if the explosion was an attack at all. The FBI and Australian investigators are currently assisting Philippine detectives to determine the cause of the blast.
The discovery of RDX in the area of the explosion, the timing (shortly after the lunch hour) and the location (in one of the busiest shopping districts in the city) all appear to signal that the blast was related to terrorism.
More importantly, RSM claims indicate that they may no longer be inactive and the ASG threat to Manila will likely remain in the near-term.
