Highlights
-EU approves 3,000 troops for deployments to Chad and Central African Republic
-State of emergency declared in eastern Chad due to tribal conflict
-Nearby Darfur remains highly unstable while the AU-UN force continues to be delayed
The European Union (EU) voted on October 16, 2007, to approve sending peacekeepers to eastern Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) along the border with the Darfur region of Sudan. The deployment is authorized by the United Nations (UN) and will be known as the UN Mission in the Central Africa Republic and Chad (MINURCAT).
The force is expected to be deployed as early as November 2007 and will include approximately 3,000 troops. France will provide the largest portion with 1,500 troops. The UN is also contributing 300 police and 50 military liaison officers. The force will assist in reconstruction efforts and provide security for aid workers based in the region. However, the force will not attempt to secure the borders.
The deployment comes in response to ongoing instability in the region of eastern Chad that borders the Darfur region of Sudan. The ongoing genocide in Darfur has resulted in instability in Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR). There are 400,000 Sudanese refugees in Chad as well as thousands of internally displaced persons (IDP). The region remains dangerous for aid workers in the refugee camps.
Despite the hope of new peacekeepers for the region, we believe the number will be insufficient to make much impact. Conflict and violence will continue until a sustained, larger force is deployed.
No Peace to Keep
While the EU resolution calls for peacekeepers to be sent to Chad, there is little peace to keep. Cross border raids by Sudanese janjaweed militias are a common occurrence. Additionally, there are ongoing ethnic tensions in eastern Chad with fighting between Chadian President Idriss Deby’s Zaghawa tribe and the Tama tribe.
A peace agreement had been reached in which former Tama rebel leader Mahamat Nour was appointed defense minister. However, renewed fighting in recent weeks has placed the peace agreement in doubt and resulted in the government declaring a state of emergency in eastern Chad.
The Chadian government says it remains committed to the peace agreement though it remains unclear if it will be able to achieve a near-term cease-fire in the region.
The Looming Crisis
The EU troops are currently the best chance for an end to the ongoing instability in Chad and the CAR. However, there remain many obstacles in Chad and CAR that the EU will have to overcome.
• The ongoing ethnic fighting in eastern Chad poses a serious long term threat to stability in the region, especially since previous fighting has involved participants from the refugee camps the EU force is set to protect.
•While the UN and the African Union (AU) have reached an agreement on the hybrid force to be deployed to Darfur, the deployment of the troops continues to be delayed by the Sudanese government.
•With only 8,000 troops, the current AU force is unable to prevent janjaweed attacks.
Going Forward
Without the deployment of the AU-UN force, the situation in Darfur could escalate at any point. An escalation of the crisis in Darfur would lead to increased refugees in Chad and the CAR resulting in even greater instability. The 3,000 new EU troops would be insufficient to handle the influx of refugees into the area, which would cause tribal violence and an additional humanitarian crisis.
There is also concern that high casualty conflicts between EU troops and janjaweed militia could adversely affect public opinion, leading to a precipitous withdrawal. Such an occurrence could quickly destabilize the region.
