Highlights
• Gary Kasparov is the new face of the opposition movement in Russia, but is unlikely to be very successful in the short-term
• President Vladimir Putin potentially becoming Prime Minister will strengthen his hold on Russia
• Russia is moving further away from democracy
As Russia prepares for both Parliamentary elections in December 2007 and Presidential elections in March 2008, two very different men have proposed their future candidacies. While only one man is a seasoned politician, both are exceptionally well-known individuals and it certainly is not a major surprise that either man is running for office. Famous chess legend and national hero Gary Kasparov has now officially thrown his hat into the ring as the opposition candidate for President.
Current Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that he may re-enter political office through Parliament and possibly as Prime Minister since he cannot legally seek a third consecutive Presidential term.
Gary Kasparov leads an opposition coalition named Other Russia, a loose coalition of both mainstream politicians and fringe groups opposed to the current Putin regime and demanding the right to participate in free and fair elections. Within this group, there are differing opinions on how Russia should be run, but the group is united in its belief that Russia is not heading in the right direction.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed to be “above” the politics of political parties, he has agreed to head United Russia’s election list without being a member, all but guaranteeing him a seat in the lower house of the Russian Parliament and potentially the Prime Minister’s office.
Chess and Politics
Gary Kasparov is a national hero in Russia and its predecessor the Soviet Union as the reigning worldwide chess champion for almost two decades. The Soviet Union and Russia have always prided themselves on producing world-class competitors in sports, as well as individuals with scientific and intellectual greatness. While chess may not be a sport in the most technical sense, it is a competitive activity requiring intellectual prowess. Gary Kasparov became a national symbol of Soviet/Russian greatness and was rewarded for his talents.
Now retired from competitive chess, he is also relatively new to the political scene, but is certainly making a name for himself. Kasparov has been very vocal in his criticisms of the Putin regime and has been instrumental in opposition demonstrations. While the demonstrations have not been particularly large, police presence at them has been noticeable. Russian authorities were accused of using excessive force against a peaceful protest in April 2007, where Kasparov himself was detained in the melee (Previous Report). He has been fined and investigated and officials have raided his offices looking for evidence that he violated extremism laws in Russia.
These extremism laws were designed to fight terrorism but can also be used against those who insult the state. Kasparov certainly has not shied away from criticizing the current Russian regime, calling it a police state and that Russian politics has not rules except when the Kremlin chooses to change them.
Strategies Begin
Kasparov has been very circumspect until now about a potential candidacy for President, but at a congress of Other Russia members, he was chosen out of five rivals to be the Presidential candidate.
While he has only been involved in politics for the last few years, he has enough name brand recognition to make up for a lack of political experience. In Russia, critics or ambitious competitors to the regime can face a difficult or threatening life. Kasparov has admitted that his fame protects him, but only to a certain degree.
Certainly Kasparov could have retired to a comfortable life, but claims he feels a sense of duty to try and change things in Russia. He has a hard road ahead of him. His party will find it difficult to qualify for Parliament, and with the immense popularity of President Vladimir Putin, it is likely that the Russian electorate will vote for the Putin designated Presidential candidate.
Opposition groups are having a hard time finding traction in Russia. President Putin is popular despite the retracting of democratic rights in the country and is credited with restoring national pride in Russia. People are also afraid to upset the status quo.
However, opposition groups claim the government controls the media and harasses them, thus making it difficult to get their message out. Other potential constituents of opposition groups may also be afraid to show their support. Kasparov is also of Armenian and Jewish descent, which despite his national hero status could be problematic, given the rise of xenophobia against the people of some of the former Soviet republic and a rise in anti-semitism. However, the opposition movement is realistic enough to know it is unlikely that they will win any elections in the near-term, but they have to start somewhere, and Gary Kasparov embodies that start.
Putin is Not Going Away
Russian President Vladmir Putin has always promised he would stay involved in Russian politics in some manner. Many believed he would put a “caretaker” President into office until he could officially run again. However, it now appears that Putin feels he must keep a closer eye on the Russian government.
Putin has now openly expressed interested in being Prime Minister if there is a President he can work with. It seems strange that Putin would want to accept a less powerful or prestigious position. However, it may be a clever way not to relinquish power.
Putin could turn the Prime Minister’s position into something more powerful, while keeping an eye on the successor President’s ambitions. Putin is loathe to relinquish power, and is aware that if he steps away from Russian politics now, he may have a hard time regaining power as other ambitious leaders may conduct a power play.
Future Outlook
Now that the opposition movement has a famous face in charge, it is likely they can gain more attention. However, it will be an uphill battle. The fact that Vladimir Putin is planning to retain power and influence in some manner does not bode well for future increased democracy in Russia.
