After the third election in almost three years, it appears that controversy still plagues the electoral and government forming process in the Ukraine. The much-hyped Parliamentary election of September 30, 2007, was supposed to resolve months of political infighting, impasses and stagnation of government prevalent since previous March 2006 elections. During those Parliamentary elections, President Yushchenko’s arch rival Viktor Yanukovych’s party, the Party of Regions (PR) won one-third of the votes, but there was a major political stand-off, as all the differing parties tried to form ruling coalitions in Parliament. After months of bickering, President Yushchenko was forced to accept Yanukovych as his Prime Minister.
Considering the previous rivalries between the two men, such an arrangement was bound for controversy. A major power play developed between the two politicians, and in April 2007, President Yushchenko dissolved Parliament and called for new elections in May. President Yushchenko then claimed that Prime Minister Yanukovych was trying to boost his majority in Parliament by encouraging opposition members to defect to his camp. Yushchenko pointed out that only parties or factions can switch sides and therefore Prime Minister Yanukovych’s actions were illegal. Yanukovych countered that President Yushchenko did not have the authority to dissolve Parliament.
The Constitutional Court took up the case amidst mass protests by supporters of both sides. Eventually, both sides agreed to a new election date in September 2007 when 150 pro-Presidential Members of Parliament gave up their seats as the legal grounds for dissolving Parliament. Although the September 30, 2007, elections occurred on time, controversy and the ultimate outcome remain in doubt.
A Tumultuous History
In reality, the Parliamentary system of government in the Ukraine has been in chaos since the “Orange Revolution” in late 2004 brought President Viktor Yushchenko to power.
The election of Yushchenko, considered a Western style reformer, was viewed as a vote for democracy especially after a tumultuous election season. President Yushchenko was mysteriously poisoned with dioxin, and the original election resulting with Viktor Yanukovych claiming victory was subsequently declared fraudulent. Democracy supporters staged mass protests, as part of the so-called “Orange Revolution” and Viktor Yushchenko later became President.
However, the Yushchenko government began with a great deal of hope and expectations that unfortunately fell flat (Previous Report). Within one year, Orange Revolution cohorts President Viktor Yushchenko and his Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko parted and she was forced out of the Prime Minister’s position.
Part of the problem was that the common interests that united factions during the Orange Revolution gave way to personal interests and differing ideas on how to run the country. As a result, very little progress was made on reforms by the Ukrainian government as promised by the Orange Revolution.
Former foes of the Orange Revolution proponents managed to exploit these weaknesses for their own political advancement. Viktor Yanukovych, once the villain of the Orange Revolution and considered very pro-Russian has managed to remake himself as more of a reformer and less of a Russian protégé. He has even hired US image consultants.
Parliamentary Election Results
While elections results are not complete, for the most part, international observers believe the September 30, 2007, parliamentary election was conducted fairly even though some registration lists were possibly inaccurate and some districts were counting votes unusually slowly, especially in the Yanukovych dominated areas. However, the Ukrainian government has already launched an investigation probing this “slow” ballot count. With 90 percent of votes counted, the results were as follows:
– Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions (PR)-39.49 percent
– Yulia Tymoshenko’s The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYT)- 31.26 percent
– Viktor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defence (NUNS)-14.55 percent
While Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych currently has a slight lead, Yulia Tymoshenko declared victory because of a deal to form a coalition with NUNS, giving their combined numbers a majority in Parliament. Tymoshenko also has reason to celebrate as she is polling at almost 10 percent higher than expected.
While Yanukovych may have the biggest party, in terms of votes, it may not be enough to form a government. However, he is refusing to concede anything for two major reasons: there appears to be a last minute surge favoring him in the late reporting of votes and he may be able to form a coalition with some other lesser known parties.
Regardless, if a BYT-NUNS coalition holds, it is likely to win by a slim majority.
Future Outlook
A great deal is at stake with this election. The party that can form a large enough majority in Parliament can overturn Presidential vetoes and oversee constitutional changes. This power struggle may be the precursor to the next Presidential elections.
It is highly unlikely that Viktor Yushchenko will be successful in any future Presidential bids, as he seems to have lost the confidence of the people. The Ukraine as a country needs a clear election outcome to be able to effectively pursue the mandate of governance.
If the outcome is not clear, and more power struggles ensue, then it is likely Ukraine will remain in turmoil for some time.
