The Pakistani Supreme Court removed the biggest obstacle to President Prevez Musharraf’s run for presidency when it dismissed petitions seeking to disqualify the US-ally from the presidential election. Nevertheless, President Musharraf’s political future remains uncertain as opposition parties, including the parties of Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan, try new strategies in an attempt to block his candidacy.
President Musharraf will likely be reelected president, because his allies hold the majority in both the national and provincial assemblies. However, the resignation of opposition parties will severely undermine the October 6, 2007, election results. Furthermore, the political turmoil in Pakistan coincides with an increase in militant attacks on security forces after the July 2007 raid of the Red Mosque in Islamabad .
Escalating Protests
On September 29, 2007, an estimated 1,000 lawyers and politicians protested the Pakistani Supreme Court’s decision to dismiss petitions contesting President Musharraf’s eligibility in the presidential elections. More than 10,000 riot police, who were guarding the court and Election Commission offices, aggressively charged the protestors, beat them with batons and fired tear gas into the crowd.
The crackdown came just two days after the Supreme Court had ruled that the government could not blockade streets or prevent protests. Hospitals reported treating 83 people injured in the protests, most suffering from head injuries.
On October 1, 2007, the Supreme Court ordered the suspension of three police officials responsible for the violent police actions. However, the violent reaction of the police will likely further polarize an already divided country.
Resignation of the Opposition
On October 1, 2007, President Musharraf’s allies submitted a vote of no-confidence against the chief minister of the North West Frontier Province, thwarting the opposition parties plan to dissolve the province’s Islamist-led assembly.
Nevertheless, on October 2, 2007, about 85 opposition members of the National Assembly and an additional 78 members in several provincial assemblies, resigned in an attempt to undermine the credibility of the Electoral College. The opposition parties argue that President Musharraf cannot run for president while he still holds the title of army chief and have called for nationwide demonstrations on the day of the election to protest his candidacy.
In response to the resignations, General Musharraf sent two of his top aids to London to continue talks with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Although negotiations between the two leaders appeared stalled earlier in September 2007, President Musharraf is now asking for Bhutto’s help to stop her party from joining the walkout in exchange for a power-sharing deal (Previous Report).
Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the vice president of Bhutto’s Pakistan’s People’s Party (PPP), has entered as a presidential candidate to ensure the ‘legitimacy’ of the elections. A former Supreme Court judge, Wajihuddin Ahmad, has also entered as a candidate and still hopes to prevent President Musharraf from winning by filing a petition to delay the elections.
Increased Militancy
Pakistani troops are facing a strengthened insurgency, especially in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North West Frontier Province. Officials have warned of an increased number of suicide attacks in the days leading up the presidential elections, a warning that was reinforced after a deadly attack on October 1, 2007 .
The past few months have seen an increase in attacks directed at politicians and security personnel, associated with Islamic militants anger over military troops invasion of the Red Mosque. Troops raided the mosque after clerics had waged a highly provocative anti-government campaign.
Suicide attacks are largely attributed to al-Qaeda and other militants, who have established safe-havens in the tribal region along the Pakistan-Afghan border. Osama bin Laden has also called for a jihad against the US-backed President Musharraf, resulting in decreased efforts by Pakistan troops to fight insurgents in the region.
Election Outlook
President Musharraf will undoubtedly win the October 6, 2007, presidential election; however, support for the president will continue to deteriorate both in and outside of Pakistan. Although the resignation of opposition members of parliament will not affect the outcome of the election, it will certainly take away from the legitimacy of the next presidential term.
Additionally, the US has become wary of supporting an administration showing increasing signs of instability.
Pakistani officials have little doubt that President Musharraf will step down as army chief before his term expires on November 15, 2007. On October 2, 2007, President Musharraf announced the appointment of the former head of the ISI intelligence agency to succeed him as army chief. Although it is still uncertain if Musharraf actually will doff his uniform and become a civilian president, his actions make it clear that he will not relinquish control of the army in the near-term.
We believe President Musharraf will continue to appoint his strongest allies to key positions in the army, so that if he decides to try to win the support of the opposition parties, including Bhutto’s PPP, by removing his uniform, he will still remain in control of the army in the near-term.
