On September 15, 2007, over 150,000 Taiwanese took to the streets in support of the island’s latest bid for United Nations (UN) membership, which has been criticized by both China and the United States. President Chen Shui-bian told supports in the southern city of Kaohsiung that joining the UN under the name ‘Taiwan’ would, “let the world hear Taiwan’s voice via the referendum.”
Taiwan has failed 14 times to regain UN membership since it lost its seat to China in 1971. The current UN bid comes at a time when Taiwan is faced with declining worldwide support as China has grown to be an economic superpower.
Despite Taiwanese popular support, the likelihood of UN membership being granted to Taiwan remains unlikely.
The Importance of a Name
The use of ‘Taiwan,’ instead of the ‘Republic of China’ (used in previous applications to the UN), demonstrates Chen’s contention that the island is completely separate from the mainland. Taiwan and China split after the end of a civil war in 1949 and today China claims Taiwan as a province.
President Chen has proposed a public referendum, due to take place before elections in March 2008, to ask voters whether the island should join the UN under the name Taiwan. Although Chen has denied the referendum has anything to do with politics, it has boosted his public standing after a series of corruption scandals involving his family and inner circle only last year.
Meanwhile, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party held its own rally in the central city of Taichung. The party is proposing its own referendum on whether the island should push to join international organizations as the ‘Republic of China,’ ‘Taiwan’ or any other ‘pragmatic name.’
China condemned the rallies, saying that Beijing is preparing for a “serious situation.” Although the definition of a serious situation was not clear, the Beijing government has long threatened military action if Taiwan declares formal independence. Emphasizing their position on the matter, an air raid drill took place in Shanghai the same day as the demonstrations in Taiwan.
Shift in US Policy
Recently, the US policy toward Taiwan appears to have shifted in view of Taiwan’s UN bid. Senior officials in the Bush administration have stated that Taiwan is not considered a state in the international community and Chen’s referendum drive is setting the stage for Chinese military intervention. US State Department officials declared Chen’s proposal “a mistake” and urged Taiwan’s leaders to “behave in a responsible manner.”
The US has traditionally avoided taking any position related to Taiwan sovereignty and encourages peaceful cross-strait relations. The latest change in US policy appears to be related to a tightening in US-China relations.
However, the US has by no means abandoned Taiwan. On September 13, 2007, the US Department of Defense announced an arms sale to Taiwan amounting to nearly US$2.2 billion. The sale would include a dozen P-3C Orion anti-submarine patrol aircraft and SM-2 anti-aircraft missiles. The Defense Security and Defense Agency said sales would help maintain “political stability, military balance and economic progress in the region.”
Taiwan’s Future
Taiwan’s position in world politics is unlikely to change in the near to mid-term. China will not risk any potentially embarrassing military action in the year leading up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the referendum is more of a political tactic by President Chen than a formal declaration of independence.
The Bush administration’s decision to publicly object to the UN bid is more a result of its desire to maintain the delicate balance of power between Taiwan and China, rather than a drastic change in policy.
The UN General Assembly is scheduled to meet on September 19, 2007, and with China opposed to Taiwan’s entry under any name, the proposal to accept Taiwan is expected to be defeated once again.
