The latest effort to reach a longstanding peace in Somalia has taken a few unexpected turns in recent weeks. In two separate conferences, leaders from both sides of the conflict – Transitional Federal Government (TFG) allies and Islamic Courts Union (ICU) members – met separately to iron out internal grudges and conflicts that have been impeding efforts to move forward with their respective campaigns.
Although clarifying strategies and weeding out self-interest is a positive step for the United Nations (UN) backed TFG, the same productivity for the opposing, pro-insurgency side could potentially provoke more instability in Somalia. Currently the two sides are in stark disagreement, and uniting their respective sub-factions will likely contribute to renewed campaigns against each other.
As such, we anticipate an escalation in violence in Somalia, which will likely spill into neighboring countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea in the mid-term.
The TFG Meets in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has traditionally hosted and coordinated peace efforts for Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, however has expanded its peace-making activities to include the Horn of Africa. Saudi King Abdullah oversaw the signing of a reconciliation agreement between several factions fighting for peace against the ICU in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah on September 16, 2007. The group included the premier, parliamentary speaker and president of Somalia’s TFG.
• The principle tenet of the reconciliation agreement that all attending parties agreed to is that an Arab and African force under UN leadership be sent to Somalia to “take over the responsibility of maintaining peace and security.”
After an unfruitful conference in Mogadishu on August 30, 2007, leaders reached out to the Arab world in hopes that hosting the peace pact in Saudi Arabia would trigger needed support from the Arab Union and UN.
The ICU Meets in Eritrea
In Asmara, Eritrea, Somali opposition leaders supporting the ICU met earlier this month to form a new coalition called the “Alliance for the Liberation of Somalia.” The group is comprised of former ICU members, supporting clan elders, and other corrupt Somali parliament members.
• The 191-member group met in an effort to set-aside differences and promised war against the forces that took the ICU away from power, including the TFG, Ethiopian troops, and foreign fighters.
We are concerned the strengthening of the opposition will have negative implications to the peace process in Somalia. Should the opposing Alliance for Liberation of Somalia establish a coordinated campaign against the UN backed TFG, it could lead to increased violence and disruption in the Somalia peace process.
Survival of the Fittest
As both sides have polished their initiative and strategy for battling the opposition, the true testament to the success of their campaigns will rely on their respective ability to carry through on their promises. Somalia’s numerous splinter groups, clans, and tribes have severely added to the gridlock in the peace process, as well as the insurgent campaign.
The coming months will test both sides’ respective agreements. We believe that if the Alliance for the Liberation of Somalia does in fact set aside its differences and unite, especially with material assistance from Asmara, Somalia will most likely return to the war torn state it has been in the last year.
