The forthcoming presidential election in Russia is causing a great deal of speculation and uncertainty as many Russians and outside observers’ wonder who will succeed Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin and his policies have been the face of a resurgent Russia, and Russian nationalism is expressly tied to Vladimir Putin. Since he is banned constitutionally from seeking a concurrent second Presidential term of office, the March 2008 election will bring a new face of leadership to Russia.
While speculation remains about potential successors, it was believed that the Presidential race would not move into high gear until after the December 2007 Parliamentary elections. However, it now seems that President Putin is ready to shake up the establishment and keep everyone guessing on whom his ultimate successor may be. It is likely that because of his overwhelming popularity in Russia, whoever President Putin anoints as his successor will win the Presidency.
Governmental Housecleaning
Last week, President Putin dissolved the Cabinet of his Prime Minister, Mikhail Fradkov and critiqued the government for not working as diligently as they should. Shortly after, Prime Minister Fradkov resigned his position. Both he and President Putin denied that Putin asked for the resignation. Yet, a few months prior to the upcoming Parliamentary elections in December 2007 seems an odd time to reshuffle the government. It is believed that Putin wanted a government better suited for the election season and post-election environment. It is also likely that he wanted to shake up perceived complacency in the Russian government.
Putin’s nominee for Prime Minister, Viktor Zubkov, was quickly confirmed by Parliament. The choice of Zubkov as Prime Minister has taken many people by surprise. Zubkov has always maintained a low profile in the Russian government and has mainly been an administrator type, most recently running a federal agency investigating financial crimes. However, he is confidante of President Putin and has known him since their day’s together working for the Mayor of St Petersburg in the 1990s.
Presidential Candidates
Zubkov himself has stated that he has not ruled out running for the Presidency if he “achieves something” as the Prime Minister. It seem an odd statement considering he would have very little time to achieve anything as Prime Minister before he would take over as President. Zubkov is also not a former KGB or intelligence officer, considered a prerequisite for much of the current Russian leadership apparatus.
Zubkov is considered something of a plodder, but one that is loyal to Vladimir Putin. Zubkov has pledged to forge ahead with Putin’s policies including revitalizing Russia’s military industrial complex.
There are several theories on why Putin would appoint someone like Zubkov. One is that Putin may have Zubkov in mind as a caretaker President following his policies until he can “officially” return in 2012. Putin would be eligible to seek the Presidency again in 2012 and has not ruled out seeking another term at that time. Putin has also stated that he will remain an influential figure in Russian politics. Other observers believe that Zubkov is not in line for the Presidency and may only be a temporary placeholder as Prime Minister to provide stability to ongoing policies.
President Putin has now claimed that there are five main candidates for the Presidency including Zubkov. The two most well known candidates are the deputy prime ministers Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev, either of who would have been the logical choice to succeed as Prime Minister.
• Sergei Ivanov, the former defense minister was considered the frontrunner, and has been making far more public appearances in the last year, especially with President Putin. He is an age peer of President Putin and was a former member of the Russian intelligence services.
• Dmitry Medvedev has an even more interesting resume: serving on the Presidential staff, heading the Presidential campaign office and serving as Chairman of Gazprom’s Board of Directors.
Putin Influence Certain
While it is possible President Putin may already have in mind his successor, he may be still trying to shake things up in the political establishment to identify the most viable candidate and curtail any political infighting. When the Presidential candidate is finally named, it is almost certain that it will be someone that will continue the policies of Vladimir Putin.
