Syria has claimed that on September 6, 2007, Israeli aircraft invaded its airspace, and unloaded ammunition after being spotted and fired upon by Syrian air defenses. Syria has asked for a formal complaint to be circulated to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), claiming Israel should be condemned for its blatant violation of international law. However, Syria has also not gone into detail of what happened on September 6th only stating Israeli aircraft flew deep into Syrian territory and dropped munitions. No mention was made of any targets bombed.
The incident that occurred on September 6, 2007, is causing unease throughout the region, as little is known of what actually happened. Israel is still maintaining its silence more than a week after the incident, claiming only that it recovered its “deterrent capability.” Israel’s Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin was quoted as saying, “Israel had now recovered its deterrent capability following the fighting with Hezbollah during the 2006 summer war in Lebanon.”
Regardless of the ultimate target, the incident will likely contribute to increased tensions in the region.
Media Speculation
Media outlets have all quoted top US officials saying that Israel carried out a military strike inside Syria. The top officials being quoted by the three news agencies all confirmed a strike occurred, but could not confirm the target. The Washington Post reported that satellite imaginary revealed that Syria was building a nuclear facility.
Another explanation of the raid was that Israel targeted a shipment of weapons that were being transferred to Hezbollah from Iran. Initial claims by both US and British newspapers were quick to report that the Israeli air attack was meant to be a warning to Syria against rearming Hezbollah in Lebanon. Within the first of week of the incident, it was generally believed by Western media that Israel targeted a weapons shipment that was intended for Hezbollah. However, details are beginning to emerge indicating the alleged target was a nuclear facility that may be connected to North Korea.
The North Korean Connection
As more details emerge regarding the September 6th incident, it is being reported that Israel had kept an eye on the facility for some time, believing that Syria was using it to extract uranium from phosphates. According to the New York Times, a Washington defense official claimed recent Israeli reconnaissance over Syria revealed a possible nuclear facility, which was being funded by outside sources. What triggered the Israeli Air Force raid was Syria allegedly received a shipment from North Korea that was labeled as “cement.” While it was unclear what was actually transported, Israeli strongly believed it was nuclear equipment. The North Korean-flagged ship, Al Hamad, arrived September 3, 2007, at the Syrian port of Tartus. Three days later on September 6, the Israeli Air Force attacked a target in northeastern Syria.
If the accusations are true implicating North Korea in nuclear proliferation activities, it would mean an end to the six-party nuclear talks between officials from the United States, North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, and Japan. It would also further increase tensions between Israel and Syria. Immediately following the accusations, North Korea denied supplying Syria with nuclear equipment, calling the incident “a dangerous provocation.” However, the United States seems to believe that Syria was seeking weapons from North Korea. US State Department officials indicated on September 17, 2007, that North Korea has provided nuclear material and guidance to Syria, and also helped the regime of Bashar Assad construct underground facilities that could be used to produce and store weapons-grade uranium.
Other Possible Theories
Currently, the leading hypothesis is that the Israeli’s targeted a shipment of material from the North Koreans that was intended for the Syrian nuclear project. The US believes this theory and Israeli indicated they believe North Korea was supplying Syria with nuclear equipment. But other possible theories include:
• The initial belief that the targets struck by Israel were weapons caches from Iran that was intended to go to Hezbollah.
• The operation was a warning to Syria. Al-Arabiya quoted unnamed sources from NATO claiming the goal of the Israeli operation was simply “a warning and an experiment” to see how Syria would respond.
• The operation was a dry run for bombing Iran.
Future Outlook
Excluding the minor complaint by Syria to the United Nations (UN), a wall of silence by both Israel and Syria is making it difficult to determine what really happened on September 6, 2007. The US has suspicions that North Korea is supplying nuclear material to Syria, which provoked Israel to launch an air attack. If this were proven, the six-party talks with North Korea would end. Also, the US would likely push for further sanctions against Damascus in an attempt to punish them for constructing a secret nuclear program.
Adding to the mystery, Syria only made muted protests over the raid and North Korea, which rarely comments on international matters, condemned Israel over the bombing.
As the facts continue to trickle in, the Israeli air strike is looking more and more like a bit of pre-emptive nuclear inventory control. The latest incident adds to the growing tensions between Syria and Israel, which could descend into war if Syria plans an aggressive response.
However, in the near-term, it is unlikely Syria will use conventional means as a response.
