Once again, discussion on the future status of Kosovo appears to be making little progress as the parties involved become more recalcitrant and impatient. There was much hope and hype earlier in the year that the issue would be resolved by this time (Previous Report). A plan drawn up by Finnish diplomat Martii Ahtisaari granting Kosovo conditional and monitored independence was to be submitted to the United Nations (UN) Security Council in a resolution, but Russia indicated they would use their veto authority in the Security Council against the resolution forcing it to be withdrawn.
Since that time a new series of talks have begun, but their purpose may prove to be fruitless. The talks currently brokered between the parties by the United States, European Union and Russia are a diplomatic necessity to show traction on the Kosovo issue. A formal deadline for the end of these talks has also been set for December 2007, a mechanism to prevent these talks from continuing indefinitely.
However, it has become increasingly clear that the Kosovo issue is heading for a showdown. Both the Serbian government and the current government in Pristina are adamant on their positions. Serbia has never wavered on its assertion that Kosovo must remain territorially part of Serbia, while the majority Albanians in Kosovo demand nothing less than independence. Instability seems a likely outcome for the future.
Serbia and Kosovo Negotiations
Conflicting and sometimes antagonistic comments from both the Serbian government and the government in Pristina is serving to inflame tensions further. The Pristina government is now vowing to declare independence at the end of this negotiation cycle. The Kosovo Albanian government has become increasingly frustrated with all the delays and is making sure the goal of Kosovo independence is realized.
• The Serbian State Secretary for Kosovo has threatened that if the Kosovo government declares independence and it is recognized by the Western powers, Serbia may utilize the use of force to prevent any official recognition of an independent Kosovo.
Serbia could annul the Kumanovo Accord, which ended the war in Kosovo and re-deploy troops to Kosovo as a result. More specifically, in addition to sending troops to the province, Serbia could also seal the border, and institute a trade embargo on Kosovo. Interestingly enough, the Serbian Foreign Minister has stated that Serbia has not threatened military action over this issue. He may be trying to tone down the rhetoric. Both sides are supposed to refrain from violence and inflammatory language during negotiations.
Russia, the European Union and the United States
It has been clear for some time that the Kosovo issue has become a foreign policy pawn between the Western powers and Russia. Russia is backing Serbia on this issue for its own aspirations and historical loyalties and to also counter Western influence in the region thus far. Russia has proven to be a formidable obstacle in the desire to make Kosovo independent. However, both the EU and the US, which were once in sync on this issue, now seem more at odds. These divisions are sure to be exploited by both the Serbia and Russian governments. While most of the Western powers do support an independent Kosovo, they are divided on how to achieve this goal. The US says it will recognize Kosovo’s independence unilaterally regardless of the outcome of the talks. However, some European powers are nervous about unilateral recognition and are unwilling to recognize Kosovo without a successful UN Resolution. The EU is also charged with administering the province once NATO leaves.
Future Outcomes
The European powers are understandably nervous about a conflict reemerging in their backyard. To some, a non-UN sanctioned independent state would lack legitimacy. Other states and the US want the issue resolved in order that Kosovo be allowed to move forward.
The Kosovo government does not seem too worried about a Serbian invasion, believing that Serbia would not take on NATO forces. However, they may be underestimating Serbia’s quest for the return of its territory.
Many fear if the Kosovo question is not handled appropriately this time, the situation could deteriorate. Once the December 2007 deadline has come and passed, we anticipate there may be increased instability in the region.