The United States Consulate in Lagos, Nigeria warned on September 9, 2007, that US and Western interests in Nigeria were at risk of a terror attack. A similar warning was issued in June 2005 and was based on a telephone threat and resulted in the embassies in Lagos and Abuja being closed as a precaution for several days. The origin of the new warning is unclear, however it will remain effective through mid-October 2007.
While the threat is based on non-specific information, the potential for an attack in Nigeria against US and Western interests remains a possibility.
Potential Targets, Potential Actors
The latest threat warned that potential targets could include diplomatic and commercial buildings in Abuja and Lagos. Expatriates were warned to take security steps that include varying routes to and from work, as well as avoiding traffic jams, particularly in Lagos. The threat and resultant warning are based on “non-specific threat information,” according to an unidentified US official.
The threat of violence is believed to be from local based organizations rather than an international organization such as al-Qaeda. However, al-Qaeda previously listed Nigeria as one of six countries that Osama bin Laden wanted to free from the influence of the US. Furthermore, the United Nations (UN) reported in February 2005 that al-Qaeda was operating training camps in northern Nigeria, which is predominately Muslim. Of note, several areas in northern Nigeria also imposed Sharia law following the end of the Nigerian dictatorship in 1999.
In late 2003 and early 2004, a group identified as the Nigerian Taleban launched a series of attacks targeting police station and government buildings in the remote northeast states of Yobe and Borno. In response to the attacks, the military launched a crackdown that killed at least twenty people. Since the crackdown, the Nigerian Taleban has not launched any additional attacks or released any statements.
However, it is unlikely the Nigerian Taleban is still active. Furthermore, the group is unlikely to have the capability to launch an attack in Lagos or Abuja, both of which are far from previous areas of operations. Currently, there are no other known militant Islamic extremists groups operating in Nigeria (Previous Report).
Increased Focus
Nigeria remains a potential target for al-Qaeda due to its close ties to the US. Nigeria provides 11 percent of the total US crude oil imports and is the fifth largest oil supplier. Attacks by the rebel group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) during 2007 in the oil producing Niger Delta region have reduced Nigeria’s oil output by approximately one fifth, and increased the price of oil on the international market. An attack by al-Qaeda in Lagos would have a significant impact on foreign companies operating there and create political instability, but would not impact Nigeria’s output capacity. Conversely, a terrorist attack in the Niger Delta region could further reduce Nigeria’s output capacity and adversely impact the price of oil on the international market.
Increased Security
On September 10, 2007, the Nigerian military and police officials said that they have undertaken increased security measures as a result of the warning issued by the US Consulate. The Nigerian military also has increased its presence in Port Harcourt, in the oil producing Niger Delta, though it did not specify the reason for the increased presence.
Nigeria has a long history of violence, however attacks have remained relatively contained in the Niger Delta region. Increased security and attention by police and military forces will be needed to thwart any new attacks. The threats of potential violence in Nigeria will remain a concern for the near to mid-term.
