Facing weak public support, on September 9, 2007, Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe announced his intentions to resign if parliament fails to extend its support for a special anti-terrorism law that supports coalition warships in the Indian Ocean. PM Abe issued the remark on the day prior to the two-month extraordinary session of the Diet. The opposition Democratic Party objects to the mission and claims the mandate does not uphold Japan’s pacifist constitution.
Although PM Abe informed lawmakers the next day that he would not quit if his bid to extend the bill fails, Abe’s actions indicate he is prepared to make a compromise with the opposition.
Should he do so, we expect the following will likely occur:
• The opposition party will continue to object to the renewal of the legislation that allows Japan’s Navy to provide fuel to US-led coalition forces in the Indian Ocean, set to expire on November 1, 2007.
• Public support for PM Abe and his cabinet will continue to deteriorate in the coming months.
The Opposition Argument
After achieving an overwhelming victory in July 2007, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) enjoys a close majority in the upper house and continues to exert pressure on Abe to resign. (Previous Report) Specifically, DPJ leaders oppose Abe’s plans to build a more assertive foreign policy and point to plummeting public support as a sign that the Prime Minister should step down.
An estimated 55 percent of voters oppose an extension to the mandate, which has provided refueling and other logistical support for US and coalition forces in Afghanistan since 2001. The DPJ continues to argue Japan’s role as solely participatory in United Nations (UN) peacekeeping missions around the world and in accordance with the country’s constitution that strictly limits the military. In August 2007, DPJ leader, Ichiro Ozawa, stated that the war in Afghanistan was an American war and had nothing to do with UN peacekeeping forces.
While Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) controls the more powerful Lower House, the opposition has the ability to block the legislation through voting delays and filibusters in the upper house.
Faltering Support
Japanese voters appear less concerned with the Afghan mission as they are with the growing number of scandals in Abe’s Cabinet. PM Abe reshuffled the Cabinet in late August 2007 in an attempt to renew voter’s trust; however, only one week later a leading minister resigned over the misuse of farm subsidies. As a result, support for the Cabinet has dropped to 32 percent in the past week.
US President George W. Bush continues to urge Abe to participate in international peacekeeping operations around the globe and specifically efforts in Afghanistan. Abe has pledged to do all he can to pass an extension of the mission, insisting that Japan has an international responsibility to continue assisting coalition efforts in Afghanistan. Former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike argued further that failure to continue support would send the wrong message to the world and terrorists.
Thoughts of Resignation
Throughout the 2007 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, PM Abe remarked that he “would not cling” to his job as Prime Minister if the vote to extend the mandate failed. Abe added he would put his job on the line in an attempt “to gain understanding from the opposition bloc.” The opposition party responded that Abe should have already resigned from his post after his defeat in the election.
Speculation abounds indicating Abe’s remarks may be the beginning of plans to honorably resign in the likely case that the Afghan mission is not extended.
However, as he has so far denied plans of resignation, resignation does not appear to be a part of Abe’s intentions any time in the near-term.
