On September 4, 2007, former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was elected chairman of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, following the death of former chairman Ayatollah Ali Meshkini on July 30, 2007. Following his election as chairman of the Assembly of Experts (AoE), Sheikh Rafsanjani now heads Iran’s two most powerful consultative assemblies—the AoE, charged with the responsibility to elect, oversee, and, if necessary, depose the Supreme leader, and the Expediency Council, which serves as an intermediary between Iran’s two policy-making bodies: the Parliament and Council of Guardians.
Considered a moderate reformer, Sheikh Rafsanjani’s appointment was a welcome sign that the moderates are gaining strength among Iran’s ruling elites. As Chairman of Iran’s two most powerful political offices, the political and economic reformer is now one step closer to becoming Iran’s next Supreme Leader.
Reforming the Assembly of Experts
Unlike the former neoconservative chairman of the AoE, Ayatollah Meshkini, Sheikh Rafsanjani is representative of a growing stream within the Iranian political system of moderate reformers. Upon election as chair of the AoE, Sheikh Rafsanjani declared it his goal to mold the AoE into a more effective political tool—specifically he seeks to increase the body’s direct oversight of Ayatollah Khamenei. In order to do so, Sheikh Rafsanjani is expected to push for the appointment of laymen to the assembly, which he anticipates will improve the Assembly’s oversight of the Supreme Leader’s performance in his secular duties. Rafsanjani will also most likely begin to speak out against Ayatollah Khamenei’s policies publicly and may also fight to make the AoE’s sessions open to the public.
All of proposed reforms will be met with stringent opposition from the neoconservatives on the Assembly. They, like their colleague President Ahmadinejad, support the continuation of the status quo and believe that the Supreme Leader is chosen and guided by Allah and is, therefore, without fault. Past points of confrontation between the two political streams of thought include Sheikh Rafsanjani’s July 2004 introduction of a motion in the Expediency Council that it provide oversight for the entities controlled by the Supreme Leader—including the Revolutionary Guard, the military, and National Radio and TV broadcasts (Previous Report)—and for writing in the latest volume of his memoirs that former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini wished to strike use of Iran’s “Death to America” mantra from public discourse.
The End Game
Though the AoE is a powerful body in Iran, the most significant implication of Sheikh Rafsanjani’s chairmanship is that it positions him to succeed the Supreme Leader. Though the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s rumored ill health is denied by his aides, unconfirmed reports convey that he is suffering from a serious, life threatening illness. Upon the death of the Supreme Leader, the AoE appoints his successor.
As head of the two most powerful political bodies in Iran—the AoE and the Expediency Council—Sheikh Rafsanjani is the most likely successor. Opponents to Sheikh Rafsanjani’s succession include:
• President Ahmadinejad, who defeated Sheikh Rafsanjani in the June 2005 presidential election;
• the bazaar merchant class, who oppose Sheikh Rafsanjani’s efforts to liberalize the economy; and
• members of the public who believe Sheikh Rafsanjani used his authority as president to increase his personal wealth.
If appointed Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor, Sheikh Rafsanjani is expected to provide a betterment of relations between Iran and the West, while making strides toward economic liberalization. The architect of Iran’s nuclear program, Rafsanjani urged the West to engage in nuclear talks with Iran three days after his appointment as chairman of the AoE. In his statement, he ensured his audience that Iran’s nuclear program would be used in the, “service of humanity.”
As Chairman of the AoE and the Expediency Council, Sheikh Rafsanjani will continue to call for dialogue between the US and Iran but will not back down from his insistence on Iran’s right to build and maintain a nuclear program.
The primary sticking point for future dialogue between the US and Iran for Sheikh Rafsanjani is the release of frozen Iranian assets, estimated to total upwards of $8 billion at the time of seizure (1979). If the US is willing to negotiate the release of Iranian assets, open dialogue between a reformist-led Iranian government and the US would be possible.
