The government of southern Sudan, a semi-autonomous region, has begun drafting a formal defense policy. Among those contributing to the formation of the formal defense policy includes top generals from the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), top southern Sudanese politicians, members of church, civil society workers, as well as British and US security consultants. The first meeting to draft the Defense White Paper took place on September 3. The overall process is expected to take months. The policy will ultimately determine the size of the SPLA. Since the end of the civil war in January 2005, both Khartoum and the SPLA have been rearming in preparation for the possibility of a renewal of hostilities. Currently the SPLA is composed of 170,000 soldiers. The SPLA receives approximately 40 percent of the south’s budget. Once completed, the defense policy will transform the SPLA from a guerilla group into a conventional army. It will also reduce the overall size of the SPLA.
Foot-Dragging on Deadlines
While the government of southern Sudan continues to make progress within the semi-autonomous region, the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed by the National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum and the government of southern Sudan that ended a twenty-one year civil war has repeatedly been delayed.
A nationwide census has also been delayed. The census is vital for the proposed 2009 democratic elections and the proposed 2011 referendum on independence for Southern Sudan. Highlighting the concern that the CPA is in risk of collapsing, United Nations (UN) Secretary General Ban Ki-moon visited the region on September 4.
The July 9, 2007 deadline for the government in Khartoum to withdraw all Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) that are not a part of north-south combined Joint Integrated Units (JIU). The government has pledged on September 2 that they will begin a gradual withdrawal of troops from the area but did not give a date on when withdrawal would begin. Additionally, the government of southern Sudan has not demobilized SPLA forces and has added between 31,000 and 51,000 additional troops from former Khartoum allied armed forces into a new armed force known as South Sudan Defense Forces (SSDF). Financial shortfalls and an inadequate UN-led disarmament, demobilization, and re-integration process for former SPLA soldiers have further hindered the demobilization process.
No New Fighting….Yet.
While the CPA was a positive step forward, a renewal of hostilities between north and south Sudan will almost certainly occur if the CPA falls apart. Additionally, no movement on a border between north and south Sudan and especially wrangling over the oil-rich central Sudan region will increase tensions. While the CPA provides for a census to be followed by a referendum in southern Sudan on independence from Sudan, it is likely that north Sudan will be unwilling to accept an independent southern Sudan. An outbreak of hostilities would likely affect Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Eritrea, all of whom were affected by the 21 year civil war. Renewed hostilities could also spread throughout Sudan with the possibility that the rebels in Darfur could ally themselves with the SPLA against Khartoum, resulting in civil war throughout Sudan.
However, in the near term, we expect limited progress to be made towards implementing the CPA with a renewal of hostilities unlikely.