On September 2, 2007, the Lebanese Armed Forces declared victory in the battle for Nahr al-Bared refugee camp against the Salafi jihadist group, Fatah al-Islam. The smoke is settling over the devastated terrain of Nahr al-Bared where 42 civilians, 163 Lebanese soldiers, and 222 militants died in three months of intensive combat. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Sinoria praised the Lebanese Army for its hard fought victory and promised that the Palestinian refugee camp would be rebuilt, but would remain under the authority of the Lebanese state (Previous Report).
The military’s victory celebration, however, was overshadowed by the ongoing political battle between the majority bloc, the March 14 Coalition, and the Opposition, headed by Hizballah and its supporters. As the fighting drew to a close in Nahr al-Bared, on August 30, 2007, March 14 member Boutros Harb officially announced his candidacy for president—making him the first candidate to enter the Presidential race. His announcement was soon followed by Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader and opposition member Michel Aoun’s September 3, 2007 announcement that he too will run for the presidential office.
Directly following Harb’s candidacy announcement, Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri gave a statement withdrawing the Opposition’s demand that a national unity government be formed prior to the September 25, 2007 presidential election. In his August 31, 2007 statement, Speaker Berri coupled the opposition’s compromise with a call for the March 14 Coalition to accept the election of a president with a two-thirds quorum.
Boutros Harb: the Compromise Candidate
Of the candidates expected to announce their candidacy, Boutros Harb is the most likely to represent a compromise candidate. He is a member of the March 14 Coalition, but his political platform is designed to achieve political reconciliation between the two parties. Speaking at a press conference, Harb sought to position himself as the future intermediary between the two sides; saying, “My candidacy is linked to the consensus between both parties.” If elected, Harb promised to “open dialogue at the presidential palace” between the two parties and seek an “honorable solution” to international calls for the disarmament of the Hizballah’s military wing, the Islamic Resistance. He also called for a “historic reconciliation with Syria” grounded in “non-interference in domestic affairs and the opening of embassies by the two countries.”
Harb’s platform may appear to be utopian, but his calls for consensus are greeted with less animosity than those of his running mate Michel Aoun. After returning from exile, Aoun surprised his base supporters, the Maronite community, when he allied himself with Hizballah and the Opposition. A warlord during the Lebanese Civil War, Aoun is now distrusted for both his track record during the civil war and his opportunistic political finagling. Likewise, potential candidate for the presidency Lebanese Forces leader Dr. Samir Geagea’s election to president would be divisive due to his linkage to war crimes during the civil war. Army Commander General Michel Suleiman offered to throw his hat into the ring if a civilian compromise candidate cannot be found.
Olive Branch or Ploy
Thus far, the March 14 Coalition declined to comment on Speaker Berri’s proposal. The coalition is leery that Speaker Berri’s apparent olive branch is an attempt to both manipulate the public and chose March 14’s presidential candidate—the coalition announced that a gentlemen’s agreement would be reached through which the coalition would present only one presidential candidate.
However, keenly aware the that the March 14 Coalition would act on its threat to elect a president by simple majority if opposition parliamentary members declined to participate in the election (Previous Report), it is possible that the opposition chose to join the presidential debate because it saw the futility in a scenario in which a military president resides over dual cabinets. If, however, the two coalitions proceed in an attempt to elect a consensus candidate and fail, the option remains open for President Lahoud to dissolve the cabinet and appoint his own parallel government. Therefore, by seeking consensus, the opposition does limit options while at the same time promoting itself as the advocate for national unity.
In the coming days, back room negotiations will open the way for a compromise candidate to emerge. Such a candidate will stand on a weak platform, allowing the ongoing political debate to remain at the parliamentary level. The March 14 Coalition will remain distrustful of the opposition but the economic and security situation in Lebanon will move them toward compromise and cooperation—the redline of the Hariri Tribunal will however remain a stumbling block.
