The United States is becomingly increasingly worried over the prospect of loose nukes in strife-torn Pakistan. As the Pakistani government faces a robust pro-Taliban insurgency in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), a significant al Qaeda presence inside the country, and a violent cadre of homegrown Islamic extremists, it only increases the anxiety of the United States.
On top of the deteriorating security situation in the country, President Pervez Musharraf has become weakened as he faces pressure from all sides, ranging from the Islamic extremists to political opponents who are demanding Musharraf resign as army chief if he wants to remain president.
As pressure on the Pakistani president continues to mount, the US is assessing how secure Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal would be in the event he was replaced as the nation’s leader.
Army Loyalty
It is unclear how much control President Pervez Musharraf has over commanders and senior officials in charge of the nuclear program, but those loyalties could change at any point.
Currently, Musharraf is said to have control over certain top commanders of the army and their units, but like the commanders in charge of the nuclear program, it is unclear how long this loyalty will last as the security situation in Pakistan deteriorates.
The prospect that President Musharraf may declare a national emergency, which would give him sweeping new powers, is a major concern for the US. American officials believe declaring a national emergency would be counterproductive and may further weaken Musharraf. With the loyalty of the army already in question, a move by Musharraf to empower himself may have a reverse effect and plunge Pakistan into political chaos. The US is watching current Pakistani troop movements closely to see whether Musharraf is preparing to make such a move.
Securing Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
Experts have already begun analyzing the fall-out of a Pakistani regime collapse in terms of not just fully functional nukes, but also from the dispersal of key staff, critical technologies, technical data, and other components. It has become a priority for the US to ensure that none of these key components fall into the hands of terrorist groups or rogue countries.
As the US remains focused on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, the head of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, who is in charge of the operational security of the country’s nukes, Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai, has been a frequent visitor to the US. Kidwai has assured the US on a number of occasions that the Pakistani military has total control over its nuclear weapons.
Despite these assurances, the US remains concerned over the nuclear arsenal. Currently, US officials are conducting scenarios indicating what would actually happen in the event of a regime collapse. Some reports also suggest that the US has plans to help secure Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a regime collapse.
Future Outlook
According to fragmentary media reports, the US has full knowledge about the location of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, but questions remain on what would happen and who would control the weapons in the hours after any change in government if Musharraf were either killed or overthrown. President Musharraf has little room to maneuver and few political allies.
