It has been eight months since the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and its Ethiopian allies defeated Islamic extremists in Mogadishu, and war torn Somalia remains just as unstable as ever (Previous Report). Somalis are dying from gunfire, bombings, famine, and disease daily. Prime Minister (PM) Ali Mohamed Gedi and his government have not been able to rally enough “peacekeeping” support or humanitarian aid to stabilize Somalia. Although Gedi’s effort to safeguard foreign visitors and senior officials from insurgent attacks is appreciated, it has not been sufficient in procuring a United Nations (UN) peace force.
• We believe the situation in Somalia will not improve in the next three to six months regardless of the peacekeeping efforts brought into the country. After decades of war, violence and instability have become deep rooted and it will take years to reverse.
• We remain concerned over the growing potential for terrorists to thrive and enrich themselves in the seemingly lawless nation.
• Ultimately, we are concerned over the potential for Somalia to be the breeding ground for terrorist activity in the Horn of Africa and other neighboring countries.
Iraq-style “Green Zone” Not Safe Enough for UN Deployment
Last week, Prime Minister Gedi announced his efforts to create an Iraq-style “Green Zone” in Mogadishu to protect senior officials and international visitors in an effort to encourage further peace initiatives, volunteers, and armed forces in the country. PM Gedi claims his government is winning the war against the insurgents, stating they were now “cleaning up,” with only 200 to 300 hardcore fighters left inside and surrounding the capital.
• We do not believe this to be entirely accurate. We assess the number of hardcore insurgents to be larger with the majority of fighters outside of the capital. We anticipate more intense violence in the surrounding areas in the near-term.
Although Prime Minister Gedi’s intentions to create a safety zone in Mogadishu may be in good faith, the UN is not as optimistic. On August 20, 2007 the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) agreed to renew the African Union’s (AU) mandate in Somalia, even though there is little progress from the under-funded 1,700 Ugandan soldiers. The British-led resolution extends the mandate by six months, conveniently pushing back the prospect of relief from a UN deployment.
At the onset of the surging conflict in early 2007, the AU committed to deploying an 8,000-man force, however, Uganda was the only member state to contribute to the effort (Previous Report). The Ugandans are “due soon” to be bolstered by 1,500 AU troops from Burundi, but the African bloc prefers the UN to take over when the AU mandate expires at the end of the year.
Forecast: Apathetic Peace Force and More Violence
Too many false promises to commit troops from other African nations will leave the AU forces short on troop commitments. Insurgents may not be as concentrated in the capital as they were earlier this year, however, that should not be interpreted or misunderstood for their inexistence or lack of capability.
On the contrary, the rebels “absence” in the capital directly relates to the increase of violence and dire conditions on the outskirts of Mogadishu. The dynamics of the insurgency has changed and rebels are now seeking more support from tribal elders in the villages. We expect this to continue for the foreseeable future, at least until the end of the year, when the AU forces mandate expires.
