As promised by Guatemalan lawmakers, security and policing concerns have occupied a prominent role in the lead up to the September 9, 2007, general election campaign, in which citizens will vote for a president, vice president, 158 congressional representatives, and 332 majors (municipal council members). Amid all the political guarantees to increase security and crackdown on murder and lawlessness, 41 persons from a variety of Guatemalan political parties have been killed in different attacks linked to election campaigns. The incoming government is sure to face a myriad of challenges but must first address violence that has run rampant for so long in Guatemala.
Background
Guatemala has a long history of political violence. Repressive military regimes governed the country until 1985 and its citizens suffered through almost 40 years of civil war that ended in 1996. Guatemala is still suffering the after-effects of the war that pitted the country’s military governments against leftist insurgents. Even after the restoration of democracy, violence continues at an alarming rate.
The leftist insurgents have formed highly organized gangs or turned to drug trafficking. Ex-military personnel have become self-appointed anti-crime squads bent on “cleansing” Guatemala of ex-insurgents turned rogue criminals. While the 36-year civil war claimed over 200,000 lives, eleven years later Guatemala retains an alarmingly high murder rate at around 6,000 per year, in a country of only 14 million inhabitants. Murderers roam with impunity as the government has significantly lacked the resources and resolve to eliminate the feuding gang members, drug traffickers, government-sanctioned vigilantes, and expatriates.
Election Violence
The majority of the election violence has come from organized crime gangs determined to influence the outcome of the September 2007 elections. Additionally, drug trafficking throughout the region has grown considerably due to Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon’s targeting of drug trafficking groups in Mexico, which have consequently fled south into Guatemala. There is little doubt that both physical and monetary influence from these drug trafficking gangs is prevalent throughout the campaigns. Additional violence comes from former paramilitaries as retaliation.
Most affected by the election bloodshed is front-runner Alvaro Colom’s National Unity for Hope (UNE) party, with 18 candidates and activists killed during the campaign. The UNE is experiencing the worst of the bloodshed because of their likely victory in September and also because of their aggressive stance against drug and criminal gangs. Opposition parties contend that the UNE is facing the worst atrocities because the UNE, itself, is highly infiltrated by the gangs. Regardless, front-runner Colom will likely win the election in a run-off on November 4, 2007, and will need to immediately begin the process of combating crime and violence in Guatemala.
Colom’s Potential Policies
Alvaro Colom’s policies for combating Guatemala’s violence remain unknown. While many citizens wish for a “firm-handed” approach to quelling the bloodshed, Colom’s social democratic beliefs may force him to stray from the authoritarian-type regime advocated by retired General Otto Perez Molina, a candidate from the right-wing Patriotic Party. Harsh security programs in neighboring El Salvador and Honduras have not proven effective in reducing the power of gangs in these countries (source).
What is certain is that Guatemalan citizens and international onlookers will expect immediate policy changes to assist in tempering the conflict within the nation. The new government must vigorously oppose both criminal and drug trafficking gangs and the unlawful vigilante groups. Even if Colom decides not to create a military-type regime to deal with the unlawfulness, he will need to build infrastructure and institutional confidence to deal with the ongoing violence. The Attorney General’s Office, the state body in charge of investigations, lacks resources, training, and civilian accountability. The judiciary is nearly in collapse. A robust police force will also need to be built (Previous Report).
Challenges Ahead
The nearly countless challenges that the new government faces will be taxing on both the incoming administration and the citizenry. However, unless significant changes are made, Guatemala’s future may become a mix of several countries in the region that are combating internal struggles.
In the near-term, Guatemala will be facing much the same as Colombia and Mexico, both of which continue to be threatened by police corruption and paramilitary organizations and El Salvador, which struggles to cope with both criminal gangs and vigilantes.
