On August 13, 2007, Polish President, Lech Kaczynski, sacked two Cabinet ministers representing two junior coalition partners, clearing the path for an early election expected in Fall 2007.
The changes in government leave President Kaczynski’s twin brother and second in command, Prime Minister (PM), Jaroslaw Kaczynski, at the helm of a fledgling government characterized by marginal popular support and party infighting. PM Kaczynski announced early elections could be scheduled for as early as October 21, 2007.
The firings and subsequent premature elections announcement come shortly after the PM’s brother, President Kaczynski, formally ended a three-party coalition between the ruling Law and Justice (PiS), Self-Defense, and League of Polish Families (LPR) with the dismissal of four ministers representing the latter two junior coalition parties in July 2007. In the aftermath of the summer’s events, political wrangling has led to suspicion and speculation as to whether ruling PiS party leaders, the Kaczynski brothers, will survive near-term elections.
Additionally, the ever-watchful European Union (EU) remains concerned about Poland’s stability and credibility as a newly accepted EU member and potential role model for neighboring former Soviet Union countries.
We believe it is unlikely Poland will suffer staunch economic hardship as a result of EU disapproval, however, it may risk losing its position as a touted success story and EU favorite.
Heads Roll as Political Crisis Deepens
In July 2007, PM Kaczynski sacked the first of two officials from junior parties in his coalition, thus substantially intensifying government tensions and raising the possibility of early elections. In the weeks leading up to the firings, political crisis initiated by party infighting, surrounded the loosely based conservative coalition of ruling Law and Justice Party and two smaller coalition partners, Self-Defense (SD) and the League of Polish Families (LPR).
On July 29, 2007, PM Kaczynski stripped LPR representative Daniel Pawlowiec of his assignment as Deputy Head of a state office on European integration based on so-called “disloyalty” to the party. Pawlowiec had formerly criticized the policies of Foreign Minister, Anna Fotyga.
Soon after Pawlowiec’s departure, Pawel Osuch, hand-picked by Self-Defense to head Poland’s Agriculture Restructuring and Modernization Agency, was the second head to roll in connection to alleged “irregularities” at his agency.
More recently, in August 2007, PM Kaczynski announced the firings of four more ministers. Former coalition partners were replaced with members or political allies of Kaczynski’s Law and Justice Party (PiS). These include:
– Education Minister –Ryszard Legutko replaces Roman Giertych (LPR)
– Labor Minister – Joanna Kluzik-Rostkowska replacing Anna Kalata (SD)
– Construction Minister – former Deputy Finance Minister Miroslaw Barszcz replaces Andrzej Aumiller (SD)
– Maritime Economy Minister – Marek Grobarczyk replaces Rafal Wiechecki (LPR)
Snap Elections Could Spell Doom for Ruling Party
In the midst of political wrangling and alleged corruption scandals, PM Kaczynski presented coalition partners with a list of demands. Among the requirements, Kaczynski insisted coalition members exhibit individual loyalty to the PM and the coalition. Failure to do so would ultimately lead to a call for premature elections nearly two full years ahead of schedule.
On August 11, 2007, Poland’s ruling PiS party gave PM Kaczynski approval to call snap parliamentary elections in an effort to end weeks of internal party turmoil and a burgeoning political crisis. In the days leading up the announcement, speculation that early elections were rapidly approaching had continued to rise. President Kaczynski has subsequently announced he will support early elections. Parliament is expected to make a decision upon reconvening from summer recess on August 22, 2007.
In the face of a snap election, insiders remain skeptical the two junior parties will garner upwards of five percent of the vote – a substantial hurdle required to attain parliamentary seats. To this end, early elections would likely lead to the collective demise of both junior parties.
Likewise, snap elections could also spell doom for the PiS, which according to recent opinion polls, is struggling to maintain a weak 23 percent support. Polls indicate the Kaczynski brothers are unlikely to come out on top in the approaching election.
EU Looks On
Since taking the helm in 2005, Poland has seen swift economic growth under the Kaczynski brothers. As the largest former-Soviet state, newly independent countries in the region have taken to view Poland as a testament of success. However, the feats sparked by Kaczynski rule have been marred by near-permanent political turmoil and incessant disagreements with skeptical EU leaders. Representatives from the center-left Democratic Party expressed regret over PiS infighting stating, “Poland is making itself look ridiculous on the international stage.”
Akin to neighboring states in the region and likewise new EU members, Poland’s political developments have EU giants, Germany and France, concerned. As we previously reported, Romania continues to struggle with political turmoil based upon recent charges of corruption brought against President Basescu. The charges against Basescu are concerning to the ever-watchful EU, so too may the events in Poland. In a worst-case scenario, Romania could see the EU refuse to accept the decisions of its courts and could ultimately mean losses in its export markets.
As Poland has until this point proven its economic stability, we believe it is unlikely Poland would experience a similar fate. However, EU leaders take corruption with the utmost seriousness and would likely voice significant disapproval should Poland fail to resolve swiftly alleged corruption and disloyalty within its ruling party.
Future Looks Grim for Kaczynski Brothers
In recent weeks, the Kaczynskis repeatedly referenced snap polls as a way out of the ever-growing political crisis. Critics and supporters alike assert their election talk may simply be a tactic aimed to bring their coalition partners to heel.
Amid harsh criticism for their so-called “political tactics” the future of the Kaczynski brothers’ rule looks grim. Incessant political wrangling within the PiS ruling party coalition has undoubtedly dampened the reputation of the party, as well as the Prime Minister and his brother.
We believe should snap elections occur it is unlikely the Kaczynski brothers will arrive victorious.
