On August 13, 2007, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) threatened, via an email message sent to Agence France-Presse, that it was considering resuming attacks in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The region has been increasingly violent during 2007, as a rash of kidnappings, bombings and attacks on the region’s oil infrastructure has been carried out by militants as part of demands for greater shares of the region’s oil wealth and alleged concerns over environmental destruction.
MEND had previously announced on June 3, 2007, that it would begin a cease-fire in order for the new Nigerian government of President Umaru Yar’Adua to address demands made by the group—including releasing jailed separatist leader Alhaji Mujahid Dokubo-Asari. Although Asari was subsequently released by the Nigerian government on June 16, 2007, and MEND has not formally taken credit for any recent attacks, the level of kidnappings and gang violence in the Niger Delta region has not diminished.
In its statement on August 13, 2007, MEND claimed, “We may resume attacks against installations from the end of August if there is no drastic change in the government’s attitude.”
This warning of possible future attacks by MEND signals a continued escalation of violence in the region. Although most of the recent kidnappings have been conducted by independent gangs, the re-emergence of MEND’s involvement in the violence permeating the region could possibly affect oil production as it did throughout May 2007. (Previous Report)
Crisis on Horizon
MEND’s warning of future violence has followed on the heels of concern outlined by senior workers of the Nigerian oil and gas industry. On August 12, 2007, senior workers from the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) issued a statement threatening to withdraw employees from the Niger Delta region if killings in the region were not stopped. Additionally, PENGASSAN urged the Nigerian government to address the violence and also called for sanctions to be levied against traditional rulers, local governments and governors who allow the militant’s activities to take place unchecked.
In response, the Rivers State government has asked security forces to address illegal oil bunkering—or the illegal theft of oil—and the ongoing violence perpetuated by area gangs. Increased police presence in the Port Harcourt area has also been joined by increased military patrols in strategic areas of unrest. Despite this increase in security, authorities have admitted to 11 deaths in the past six days in the Port Harcourt area, though residents and media sources claim the toll is much higher.
Fighting in the region has deteriorated from targeted attacks on the oil industry by militants seeking political demands to gang-type violence, robberies and abductions that have not been impacted by increased security by police officials.
Oil Bunkering Fuels Violence
The illegal theft of crude oil or oil bunkering has allegedly been used as a major source of funding for militant groups. Theft of oil is usually conducted in two ways, either by drilling into vulnerable oil pipelines or by high jacking barges loaded with crude oil.
An August 2006 report by United States based non-profit Freedom House indicated that approximately 10 percent of Nigeria’s total crude oil production, or roughly 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) is stolen each day in the Niger Delta region. The majority of stolen crude oil is resold on the black market and profits are believed to be utilized by militants to purchase weapons and fund ongoing illegal activities.
Despite the May 2007 democratic elections, and promises by President Yar’Adua to address the conflict in the Niger Delta region, the act of bunkering has not been deterred. However, some progress has been seen. In late July 2007, Nigerian Chief of Navy Staff Ganiyu Adeyeye announced that 10 Nigerian naval officers were retired due to their involvement in smuggling stolen crude oil. This admission of official involvement in the act of bunkering has long been suspected, but rarely recognized by Nigerian government entities.
Future Requires Multi-Faceted Approach
The ongoing violent situation in the Niger Delta region will continue in the short-term. With the threat of increased violence from MEND and the continuance of kidnappings and targeting of oil industry workers, oil production capabilities will continue to be vulnerable. Until a multi-pronged approach is launched by the Nigerian government—focused on establishing increased security, a dialogue with leading militant groups, and deterring the black market sale of stolen oil—the threat of violence and instability within the Niger Delta region will continue.
