Relations between Georgia and Russia took a turn for the worst when a Russian-made rainbow X-58 anti-radar guided missile landed just outside the Georgian village of Sjavsjvebi, approximately 60 km northwest of the capital Tbilisi on August 6, 2007. The Russian version of the incident is that the event was an attempt by Georgia to invent tales about an aggressive Russia to gain sympathy from the West. Conversely, Georgia claims that two Russian Sukhoi Su-24 attack aircraft entered its airspace from Russia, fired the missile (which failed to explode) and retreated back to Russia.
Georgia believes that the missile didn’t explode because it was jettisoned near Georgia’s regional radar center during a reconnaissance flight. The X-58 missile is designed to hit certain types of structures, including radars. Officials within the Georgian government are concerned that Russia is conducting reconnaissance flights deep into Georgia’s territory.
The incident is provoking a diplomatic war of words in the latest sign of strained ties between the two former Soviet republics, as both sides continue to make accusations. Relations in the near-term will continue to be labored, as details continue to emerge.
The Problem in South Ossetia
The Georgian government believes that this incident is yet another provocation from Russia, aimed at destabilizing and jeopardizing Georgia’s attempts to bring South Ossetia under its control. Since Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili took power in November 2003, he has sought to change the Russian-dominated format of conflict-resolution in South Ossetia. The greater part of South Ossetia is controlled by the de facto independent “South Ossetian Republic” which is currently not recognized by any country or international organization. President Saakashvili is trying to reintegrate the smaller breakaway republic and recently has been seeing some, but very limited success.
In 2005, Mikheil Saakashvili outlined several main principles in settling the South Ossetian conflict. These included: recognizing South Ossetia’s autonomous status (abolished in 1991), guaranteeing political representation for South Ossetian officials, guaranteeing education in the Ossetian language, and securing the region’s cultural autonomy. Thus far, South Ossetia’s de facto president, Eduard Kokoity, has refused to consider this proposal.
Georgia accuses Russia of supporting the separatist cause and destabilizing any efforts of the Georgian government to bring South Ossetia under the control of Tbilisi. Russian peacekeepers based in the region currently monitor the situation between the central government in Georgia and the de facto government of Eduard Kokoity. These peacekeepers have often been the subject of controversy, as Georgia has had little confidence in the Russian peacekeepers to maintain peace in the region and have often turned to the West for support.
The West Remains Silent
When the missile landed outside of Tbilisi on August 6, 2007, there was an absence of any significant international outcry over the situation. Russia claims that Georgia is pursuing an anti-Russian foreign policy by trying to become a full North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member and because of its involvement in the GUAM group, (consisting of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova.)
Georgia’s demand for a special United Nations Security Council (UNSC) session on the latest missile incident has further frustrated Tbilisi to the West’s apparent unwillingness to confront Moscow over its meddling in the affairs of its neighbors. Three years after United States backed pro-democracy movements swept to power across the region, from Georgia to Ukraine to Kyrgyzstan, Georgia remains the only country still racing to join Western institutions like NATO and continues to find itself increasingly isolated as Russia’s foreign policy ambitions grow.
Despite Georgia’s strong pro-West stance, the US and European Union (EU) have been distracted by other priorities, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, international terrorism, and hostilities with Iran. However, the US Embassy in Georgia issues a statement condemning the August 6, 2007 rocket attack, stating “We praise Georgia’s continued restraint in the face of this air attack and call for the urgent clarification of the facts surrounding the incident.”
Several NATO countries continue to be reluctant to allow the ex-Soviet country into the defense organization fearing a backlash from Russia. Even the EU, which is hamstrung by differences among member countries over Russia policy, has often failed to adequately respond to Russia’s military and political pressure upon Georgia. The Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, along with Romania and Poland, are the primary countries, which have strongly supported Georgia in its latest rift with Russia.
Same Old, Same Old
The latest incident brings back memories of March 2006, when a mysterious raid by attack helicopters rocketed public buildings in villages in the Kodori Gorge, a region of the breakaway region of Abkhazia where Georgia has since reestablished its rule. The Western response was almost inaudible. Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov claimed that Georgia was responsible for the missile incident and called it a “theatrical show” meant to derail the peace settlement in South Ossetia and an attempt to garnish Western support. If that were the case, Georgia failed miserable, as the West remained relatively silent.
Finding the Truth
Most of the acts of aggression that have taken place in the region over the last years are controversial and unresolved. A week after the incident, Russia and Georgia continue to accuse each other of launching the missile. Russia’s Chief of the Military General Staff, General Yuri Baluyevsky said “I’m convinced that it was a provocation by Georgia, a provocation against the Russian peacekeepers as a whole.” Georgia’s Foreign Minister, Gela Bezhuashvili, was quoted as saying “We expect a proper reaction to the facts from Europe,” adding that the United States, Lithuania, Sweden, Croatia, and Britain all expressed interest in sending experts for the international investigation to verify the facts in the case.
Georgia has allegedly made available to foreign representatives evidence that implicate the Russians. Radar printouts show the intruding aircraft path from the direction of North Ossetia, southwest into Georgian air space and then back northeast into Russian air space. Russian and Ossetian peacekeepers also indicated the aircraft flew in from the northeast towards the southwest, while one Russian “peacekeeping” commander stated that South Ossetian troops fired a shoulder-launched missile, initially believing it was a Georgian plane. Also, Georgia made it known that it has a few SU-25’s, but no SU-24’s in its inventory. Despite the evidence Georgia is presenting, the Kremlin denies that it had anything to do with the missile.
Conflicts to Continue
The latest missile incident will not be the last conflict Georgia will have with Russia. However, Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili is determined to break Moscow’s lock on the two separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as continue to establish better relations with the West and eventually become a member of NATO.
On Georgia’s quest to accomplish these goals, tensions between Russia and Georgia will continue to increase as both countries are heading down different paths.
