The past month has been unusually successful for Algeria’s security forces. Police have arrested over 60 and killed over 50 al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AOIM) members, including the mastermind behind the April 11 and Ju ly 11, 2007, bombings (Terrorist Attack; Terrorist Attack). Security forces have either rounded up or killed numbers of militants on an almost daily basis since mid-July, leaving AOIM apprehensive and vulnerable. Recent videos and statements from the organization convey a sense of uneasiness, or defensiveness.
Though AOIM usually releases morale boosting videos or statements after an unfruitful attack or deadly police offensive, recent media productions do not convey the same tone.
• We believe that the capabilities and tactical strategies of the AOIM have been weakened due to Algerian security forces’ recent offensive.
• We suspect this pattern to continue in the mid-term; however, we remain concerned over the AOIM’s ability to recruit foreign fighters and older militant Muslim extremists to compensate for their losses.
Algerian Forces Hit the Jackpot
On July 18, 2007, during one of the largest round-ups in recent months, police seized a laptop that included the names of some 500 terrorists, just outside AOIM’s operational stronghold, Tizi Ouzou. That day. 60 members were rounded up by police in response to an attack plot thwarted by security officials .
Since the confiscation of the laptop, Algerian security forces have conducted an unprecedented number of arrests and killings:
• July 28, 2007: Abdelkader Ben Messoud (aka Musab Abudaoud), the number two leader of the southern provinces, surrendered to authorities.
• July 30, 2007: Security forces killed 34-year-old Sid Ali Rachid (nicknamed Ali Dix), the mastermind behind the April 11th terror attack in Algiers and the July 11th attack on an army barracks in Lakhdaria.
• August 3, 2007: At least 23 members of AOIM were killed in the Tebessa province, near the Tunisian border, in a three-day army operation.
• August 10, 2007: Security forces discovered an arms cache and factory capable of producing conventional bombs in the town of Zammouri, 54 kilometers from Algiers. The workshop manufactured bombs, chemicals, special containers and clothing for bombs. Leaflets and hordes of food were also found.
Weaknesses Unveiled
These recent milestone events have severely weakened the organization. Upon his surrender, Musab Abudaoud revealed to security forces that his move to surrender followed disagreements with the AOIM’s other leaders on the strategy the organization has adopted since the April 11, 2007 attacks. Abudaoud reportedly told security services that several members of AOIM wanted to “seize the opportunity” to benefit from the Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, the government’s amnesty program for surrendering terrorists.
Moreover, Ali Dix’s death is another major loss for the organization. Dix was deemed the group’s operational strategist, introducing suicide attacks of a style previously unknown in Algeria, which were admired by al-Qaeda core leaders. He introduced a technique enabling terrorists to remotely detonate vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED), and oversaw operations from beginning to end. Ali Dix orchestrated the whole operation: he selected the target and identified the person responsible for carrying out the attack, as well as who would document it on film.
• We believe the AOIM has suffered a great tactical and operational blow following his death and will continue to suffer major losses in the near to mid-term.
The group’s vulnerabilities are also revealed through their media productions and communiqués on the Internet. In their latest installment of the “Sword’s Shadows,” a number of curious images on screen provoked thoughts that the organization may be weakening in capabilities, as well as tactical strategy (Previous Report). Some of these images include: fewer fighters, south Asians, and an unusual number of older fighters. In addition, AOIM usually documents roadside bombings or other improvised explosive attacks to highlight their fighting capabilities and heighten morale. However, their latest video featured a round of AK-47 gunshots taking down one police officer.
Forecast: More Headway for Algerian Forces
AOIM’s visible power shortage, coupled with the Algerian security force’s surge in counter-terror and counter-intelligence measures, leads us to believe that security services will continue to round up and/or kill AOIM militants for the long-term. The organization is currently in a state of disarray over its severe losses in recent months and, as a result, is attempting to overcompensate by engaging in high level, trans-border recruiting operations.
We believe that as the AOIM continues to operate, and as Algeria and its neighbors continue to increase security measures and counter-terrorism cooperation, the number of militant arrests and killings will continue to increase.