On July 29, 2007, Houthi tribe rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi met with a Yemeni ceasefire committee for the first time since a disarmament agreement was passed on June 16, 2007. The five-pronged agreement, brokered by Qatar, resulted in a brief two-and-a-half-week ceasefire, before the Houthis breached the agreement, killing a number of army soldiers and citizens, as well as kidnapping several innocent civilians in the process. Since the first breach, the Houthis and the multi-party ceasefire committee have been unsuccessful at maintaining, or even restructuring, the major tenets of the agreement.
Meanwhile, many Yemeni nationals—the majority of whom are indifferent and largely unaffected by the rebel clashes—are continually suffering from poverty, inadequate housing, and skyrocketing unemployment. Although it is important for the Yemeni government to combat the Houthis and other terror-related groups within its borders, it will be to no avail if the government doesn’t improve its ability to combat the issues that lead to rebellion and insurgency.
Ceasefire “Dis-Agreement”
When the two sides agreed to a ceasefire in mid-June, the conditions were thought to be reasonable and promising. The Houthis and the Yemeni government initially agreed to five measures:
1. Leader, al-Houthi, and his followers would comply with Yemen’s republican system, constitution and laws
2. End the rebellion
3. The Yemeni government would implement a general amnesty and release all detainees except those on trial
4. Houthis would surrender mid-sized weapons and ammunition
5. Respect for freedom of opinion and expression, including the right to establish a political party according to the constitution.
Efforts to neutralize the agreement included assembling an implementation committee, which consisted of three Qatari advisors and nine multi-party Yemeni officials. Qatar also agreed to financially aid in rebuilding the Northern mountain regions occupied by the Houthis.
However, the ceasefire did not last long. By June 28th, the rebels descended from their mountainous hideouts, but did not surrender their weapons. On July 5th, security forces and rebels violently clashed, leaving a number of civilians killed and wounded. Additionally, the breach occurred on the same day security forces clashed with terrorists over the July 2nd bombing, in which al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) killed seven Spanish tourists (Terrorist Attack, Terrorist Attack).
• We believe it is likely that the breach of agreement on July 5th was a result of heightened tensions and pressures resulting from a major al-Qaeda sponsored terrorist attack on July 2nd.
• Although differing in ideology, we remain concerned over the propensity for terrorists and rebels to fuel and share in one another’s rage and hatred for the Yemeni government. We believe this will be cause for future attacks and/or collaboration on future operations.
Neglecting Domestic Issues
While the government is investing the majority of its human and financial resources in combating terrorism within its borders, many of the Yemeni people remain marginalized. The social and economic conditions in Yemen are worsening and the government has not made sufficient efforts to remedy the situation.
Poverty and unemployment are on the rise in Yemen, yet the majority of foreign aid to Yemen has been stipulated solely for the purpose of combating terrorists and rebels. However, this has proven to be not only an uphill battle, but thus far also a loosing one.
To reverse this trend, the Yemeni government would be better served in addressing and fixing sources of extremism, such as poverty, unemployment, and disenchantment with the regime, in order to stabilize national conditions and eradicate extremism for the long term.
Forecast: More Breaches in the Near Future
Currently, the Houthis and the Yemeni government are in a state of relative calm, except for occasional skirmishes between Houthi loyalists and army-supported tribal members. The lack of trust between the two sides has been a major cause of the problems between the Houthis and the Yemeni government. The rebels refuse to lay down their arms as long as Yemeni security forces are holding their own; the Houthis believe the government will see it as a golden opportunity for retaliation.
Abdelmalik al-Houthi and committee members must reach a new agreement where the implementation of such is more proactive and balanced. A new committee, which should also include several Houthis, should be assembled. If serious measures or efforts to neutralize the current conditions between the two factions are not taken, we anticipate more breaches of the original agreement in the near-term.