June 29, 2007, marked a historic day in Britain, as it was the first day newly installed British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown. Succeeding nearly a decade of governance under Tony Blair, expectations placed on the new leader are high. Speculation as to whether or not he will stay the course pursued by his predecessor abound.
Perhaps priming the public for a stark change in policy and politicking, just prior to entering his new home on 10 Downing Street, Brown signaled the possibilities ahead of him stating, “Now is the time for change.”
In this report we will examine Brown’s domestic and international policies, specifically Britain’s battle against terrorist attacks on its soil, the future of so-called “special relationship” between the US and the UK, and Brown’s plans regarding European heavyweights, France and Germany.
Domestic Policy: Britain Faces Terrorism at Home
In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the UK continues to be challenged by the jarring effects of terrorism on its homeland. In the wake of devastating terror attacks in July 2005, enacted anti-terror legislation has led British police to arrest and detain upwards of 1,000 individuals suspected of Islamist extremism. At present, approximately 200 terrorist networks comprising 1,600 identified individuals are currently under investigation.
On June 29, 2007, London Metropolitan Police encountered an explosive device inside an abandoned Mercedes sedan in London’s Haymarket area. Hours later, a second abandoned vehicle was discovered in the vicinity of Hyde Park. In a doubly alarming turn of events, the following day, two unidentified men attempted to navigate a sport utility vehicle into Glasgow International Airport.
As we previously reported, the UK remains at significant risk for terrorist attacks. The June 29 and 30, 2007, failed terror attacks coupled with recent conviction of al-Qaeda members to include top al-Qaeda personality, Dhiran Barot’s UK-based “sleeper cell” accomplices, underscore the serious threat of terrorism Britain faces. On July 9, 2007, Security Minister Sir Alan West announced the battle against radicalization in the fight against terrorism in Britain could take upwards of 15 years to achieve. Additionally, the former Navy Chief Admiral declared Islamist jihadists outside of the UK were largely to blame for the radicalization of young Britons – emphasizing the existence of so-called “home-grown” terrorists residing within the country.
On the domestic front, Britain’s challenge to combat Islamist extremism is without end. With a Muslim population approaching 2 million, a majority of whom are Sunni and South Asian, Britain is quickly becoming a primary hub for Islamist extremism in Europe. Attributed to an increase in immigration, particularly those of Muslim faith, high numbers of immigrants are living in crowded and often economically depressed enclaves, environments ripe for religious extremism wherein terrorists are provided intrinsic protection, an environment that does not exist elsewhere.
To be sure, Brown faces a significant challenge in effectively protecting the homeland from both domestic, the “homegrown” element, and international terrorism. To his credit, Brown’s stance against the June 2007 failed terror attacks has given renewed credibility to Britain’s Labour Party and hope that Brown’s administration may be successful. Already being lauded for his call to increase anti-terror legislation, Brown is proving tough on terrorism.
We believe faced with the ever-present threat of attack, Prime Minister Brown will seek to demonstrate resolve and determination in the face of a mounting terrorist threat to Britain’s homeland.
Maintaining the “Special Relationship”
Despite minor adjustments and a seemingly re-prioritized government, it is unlikely Brown will seek to change the quality of the famed “Anglo-American” alliance between the UK and the United States.
The so-called “special relationship” forged by Tony Blair and George W. Bush is unparalleled. The strategic alliance has proven a great success for both nations. Washington’s commitment to maintaining its close ally across the pond is just as strong, if not stronger, than that of London. From the start of post – 9/11, the relationship shared, specifically in the military and intelligence sectors has proven invaluable to both parties. At present, upwards of 12,000 British troops fight alongside American counterparts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and London and Washington continue to cooperate on counterterrorism operations worldwide.
The enduring strength of the “special relationship” is the envy of nations around the globe, and one that leaders of major European nations are unlikely to mirror. To this end, it is unlikely Brown will disengage and/or distance himself from the established “good faith” relations with the US, much to the dismay and disappointment to French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel.
To date, Brown does not appear to advocate a pre-mature withdrawal of British military forces from Iraq. And in Afghanistan London remains outwardly committed to increasing British troops on the ground.
Green Eyes: Europe Looks On
Upon succeeding Blair, Brown continues to signal his objective to overhaul Britain’s government and further declare his intention to meet “the challenge of change.”
Brown supporters and critics alike anxiously await his next move, specifically in the realm of European Union relations. While France and Germany continue to cooperate, albeit cautiously, with the US, they are unlikely emulate Britain’s position and commit further military and philosophical support to America in a large-scale war akin to Afghanistan conflict. While outwardly Paris and Berlin continue to make amends with the US the truth remains the US will look to neither for support should it face another 9/11 terror attack.
Paris and Berlin’s tenuous relationship with the US may lead Brown down a difficult path. Should he choose to side with the US, he will undoubtedly disappoint his European neighbors. Conversely should he choose to focus his policy efforts in the direction of EU giants, France and Germany, he risks breaking Britain’s “special relationship” with crucial strategic ally, the US.
We believe as Britain’s outlook is predominately less Euro-centric, Brown will likely follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Blair, and continue to push the UK as strong European power, but also a global one.
Future Looks Bright
In July 2007, Brown enjoyed a coveted overnight stay at Camp David with President Bush. An important meeting, it was the first opportunity the leaders had to establish a personnel rapport, a widely known Bush-favorite.
The meeting was also a chance to discuss the Iraq war, the results of which many believed would signal the direction of Brown’s administration. Despite his refusal to employ the phrase “war on terror,” citing, “terrorism is not a cause, it is a crime and it is a crime against humanity,” Brown gave expressed no plans to bring British troops home and thus radically change the US-UK relationship. The meeting was touted a success.
Should a successful terrorist attack occur on British soil, we believe Brown will likely enact substantial increases in already stringent security procedures at home. Additionally, an attack akin to the July 2005 transport bombs will likely lead Brown to seek deepened ties with the US.
After nearly a decade of rule, Tony Blair’s resignation and Gordon Brown’s subsequent installation, may be a welcome change in Britain. Although it will be a challenging road ahead, Brown may be the figure to continue Britain on its path to a brilliant future.
