Recent elections in Beirut split, resulting in a slim majority for the incumbent party, The March 14 Coalition in Beirut’s 2nd District and a win for the opposition in the Metn District. Despite the opposition’s Metn victory, the March 14 Coalition maintains an overall four seat majority in Parliament.
Under the watchful eye of 4,000 Lebanese Armed Forces, the by-elections took place with a relatively low-level of civil unrest—which the Sinoria government labeled evidence of governmental legitimacy. However, regardless of the opposition’s Metn victory, opposition member and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri continued in his refusal to recognize the elections as legitimate. Therefore, it is anticipated that the nine-month political deadlock in Lebanon will continue unabated. Tension on the ground will increase in the lead up to the September 2007 presidential election, when General Aoun and former President Amin Gemayel are expected to face off.
Significance of Aoun Candidate’s Narrow Victory
The close race between Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) candidate Kamil Khoury and March 14 Coalition candidate Amin Gemayel is an indicator of the political divide within Lebanon’s Christian community. FPM Leader Michael Aoun surprised the Christian community when he sided with the Hizballah-led opposition following his return from exile on May 7, 2005.
Though FMP candidate Kamil Khoury defeated Amin Gemayel in the Metn district by-elections, the narrow 418 vote victory is touted by the March 14 Coalition as evidence that General Aoun is declining in popularity; General Aoun won the vast majority of the Christian vote in 2005.
Foreshadowing of Presidential Election
The August 5, 2007 by-elections were conducted without the constitutionally required approval of President Emile Lahoud, who considered the elections illegitimate in the absence of a unity government (Previous Report). In the midst of March 14 Coalition preparations to conduct the Presidential election on September 25, 2007, President Emile Lahoud vows he will only relinquish power to “a president who has won the approval and support of all Lebanese.” However, there seems to be no end in sight to Lebanon’s political deadlock, leaving little hope for the formation of a unity government.
In Lebanon, the President is chosen by Parliamentary vote. However, Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has refused to convene Parliament for nine months. He maintains that the withdrawal of Hizballah’s ministers resulted in a collapse of the constitutionally required proportional sectarian representation. Speaker Berri persists in his insistence that a unity government must be formed before parliament is reconvened.
Like this week’s by-election, the March 14 Coalition intends to hold the September 25th presidential election without the consent of either President Lahoud or Parliamentary Speaker Berri. If elections are held and the March 14 Coalition elects its candidate, the opposition will refuse to recognize the March 14 President and parallel cabinets will be formed. In anticipation of the disputed Presidential elections, the Lebanese Central Bank agreed to fund both the March 14 Coalition and the opposition’s governments. As a result, in the absence of a single constitutionally elected government, the military will be forced to cease all operations and return to barracks.
Political Dissonance
We anticipate that the March 14 Coalition and the opposition will persist in their inability to form a unity government. The Presidential elections will take place outside of Parliament and without the opposition’s consent.
Therefore, September 2007 will arguably conclude with the formation of two parallel Lebanese governments. The formation of two governments and the quartering of the Lebanese military will result in increased political instability in Lebanon, as evidenced by the by-election’s disclosure of an evenly divided Lebanese Christian population. This outcome is unsustainable. In the near future, the Lebanese political stand-off will either be resolved through political means (i.e.: the formation of a unity government) or will lead to the complete collapse of the Lebanese government.
